Depending on who you ask, Jaxson Dart is either the next big thing or a project QB who needs serious seasoning. But one thing’s for sure—his name is never away from wild rumors every once in a while. And this time, he’s being speculated to shake up the league with a move to Seattle. What’s more? The former Ole Miss quarterback will reportedly replace a $75 million veteran. But before we dive into that madness, let’s address the elephant in the room—how good is Dart, really? And is he even ready for this leap?

Well, broadcaster and NFL analyst Tom Downey didn’t hold back when he gave his two cents on the player’s stock in his Cowboys Report by Chat Sports podcast on March 8. “Jaxson Dart [in] top 10 is nonsense. Like, what are we doing out here?.. I’ve got like late Day 2, early Day 3 grade on Jaxson Dart. He’s not going to be there for you anyway.” Basically, Downey is throwing a bucket of cold water on the hype train, despite putting up video-game numbers at Ole Miss—a career-high 4,279 yards, a 69.3% completion rate, and a 29-to-6 TD-INT ratio. Additionally, there’s seemingly a big ol’ asterisk attached to Dart’s production, named Lane Kiffin, which Downey further dissected.

“Jaxson Dart and the Lane Kiffin offense is—Mickey Mouse offense, it’s not real. You’re not asking him to do the same…If you drop Jaxson Dart right now in an NFL offense, he’d go, ‘Oh my God, what am I supposed to do here?’ Like, I think he needs at least a year to get up to speed with what the NFL wants to do on offense. He is a talented QB, but it’s all, like, above-average stuff.”

Finishing the last season, with a 10-3 record, the Ole Miss signal caller is reportedly ranked first in passing grade, accuracy rate (based on ball placement) on throws between 5 and 25 yards downfield, and second in success rate under pressure (behind Will Howard) over the entire 2024 season. And this surely doesn’t indicate a QB who’s unsure. However, we’ll just have to wait to see how things pan out if and when Dart ultimately goes to the Seahawks…

Jaxson Dart to replace $75M QB at Seattle?

Now here’s where things get spicy. Despite all the doubts, Dart’s name keeps coming up as a possible first-rounder. And with the Seattle Seahawks trading their QB Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders in exchange for a third-round draft pick, a new opening has appeared.

Seattle’s roster is already in full rebuild mode. They’ve let go of key veterans, including Tyler Lockett, Dre’Mont Jones, George Fant, Rayshawn Jenkins, and Roy Robertson-Harris. Furthermore, DK Metcalf requested a trade, signaling that the Seahawks’ 2025 season is looking more like a demolition project than a title run. And now, without Smith, they’ll need a quarterback.

With the 18th overall pick in the draft, Seattle’s got options. But the top QB prospects—guys like Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders—are unlikely to fall that far. That leaves Dart as a possible target. Seattle isn’t in win-now mode, which means they could afford to draft Dart and let him sit for a year while he adjusts to the NFL’s learning curve. Pete Carroll might be gone, but the Seahawks still have the patience to develop a QB instead of throwing him into the fire right away.

If Seattle takes Dart, they’re betting on traits over polish. He’s got the arm. He’s got the athleticism. But does he have the NFL IQ to make it work? History says it’s a coin flip. QBs from similar offensive systems have either flourished (think Patrick Mahomes, who sat behind Alex Smith and learned) or flopped (think Johnny Manziel, who was thrown into the deep end with no life jacket).

Dart’s future depends on his ability to adjust, but the raw talent is there. If Seattle grabs him at 18, it’ll be one of the most polarizing picks of the draft. Boom or bust—there’s no in-between.