Ain’t no way around it—Florida State fans have been through the emotional wringer these past two seasons. One minute, they’re flexing an undefeated 13-0 record, ACC champs, feeling disrespected by the CFP committee for getting snubbed. Next thing you know, they hit a historic freefall straight to 2-10, the worst record ever for a preseason top-10 team. That’s not just a drop-off—it’s an all-out collapse. And just when you thought 2025 was about to be a redemption tour, reality smacks Mike Norvell and FSU in the face with a double dose of trouble. College football insider J.D. Pickell from On3 broke it all down on February 8, and let’s just say the forecast ain’t sunny in Tallahassee.

First up, Pickell ain’t sugarcoating it—FSU’s 2025 roster just ain’t championship material. “The roster that they have right now in Tallahassee, from what I can gather. They don’t have what they need to be among the elites in college football in 2025,” he said. Translation: This squad ain’t ready for prime time.

If Florida State wanted to bounce back and actually compete for the ACC title or some good bowl game, they needed to cook up something special in the transfer portal. But instead of bagging a true game-changer at quarterback—someone like John Mateer (who took his 3K+ passing yards, 29 TDs, and over 800 rushing yards to Brent Venables Oklahoma) or Carson Beck (who packed his bags for Miami for $4 M bag)—they settled for Thomas Castellanos. Well, Castellanos ain’t no scrub or slouch. But let’s keep it real: he was benched at Boston College, and BC won seven games last year.

That’s not exactly the type of pickup that screams “elite rebuild.” He put up 1,366 passing yards, 18 TDs, and 5 picks in eight games but struggled with injuries and system changes under Bill O’Brien. Look, very good statistics for the first 8 games, but not exactly the guy to make FSU fans forget about Jordan Travis.

The rest of the portal class? Solid but not very spectacular. Duce Robinson from USC? Good, but got lot to prove. Squirrel White from Tennessee, 6’7′ Micah Pettus at OT from Lane Kiffin’s Rebels—nice pieces, but no big-time headline-stealing or ‘New York Times’ front page’ moves. Oh, and they fumbled big time on five-star offensive lineman Solomon Thomas, who decommitted after Mike Norvell fired Alex Atkins and ended up at LSU.

To make matters worse, the 2025 recruiting class ranks No. 19 nationally (247Sports), which ain’t bad but sure ain’t elite. The ‘Noles needed a home run. Instead, they got a couple of base hits and a handful of strikeouts. And if that wasn’t enough, here comes the 91′ Mike Tyson’s uppercut.

Mike Norvell’s 2025 season schedule brutality

You know how in horror movies when the protagonist barely survives one nightmare, they turn the corner and—boom—another monster waiting? That’s FSU’s 2025 schedule. J.D. Pickell spelled it out: “The rest of the teams on your schedule, they’re not sitting back. You open with Bama—don’t think that’ll be a walk in the park. You’re at Miami—no Cam Ward, but they got a good quarterback who you’re familiar with, unfortunately, from his time at Georgia. At Clemson, who’s my favorite in the ACC. And then you finish at Florida. So that in itself is potentially four losses.” Yeah… brutal.

Florida State kicks things off in Week 1 with Alabama at Doak Campbell. That’s right—no warm-up, just a trial by fire. And let’s not forget, Bama might’ve had a “down year” at 9-4, but they ain’t about to let that happen again. Then comes Miami in Week 6, looking deadly with Carson Beck at QB. And Dabo Swinney’s Clemson in Week 11, who should be the ACC favorites. The Seminoles wrap it up with back-to-back road games at NC State and Florida. Good luck y’all. They’re going to play their last game of the season against the QB at Gainesville, who’s got better odds at winning the Heisman than FSU making it to the playoffs.

So, let’s connect the dots: FSU finished 2-10 in 2024, had pretty good transfer portal moves, and lost key recruits. And now they have a schedule that looks like a gauntlet designed to crush their hopes before they even start. That’s a recipe for disaster. Look, they are going to have a better season than 2024, no doubt. The experts and analysts have called 7-5, 8-4, or 6-6 season, still better than 2-10, right?

Pickell put it plainly: “My point being here—expecting Florida State to be elite right away after what just happened last year. With what they did via the portal, the actions don’t totally match up for me when I look at what’s expected of Florida State from this take versus what they’ve done to rebound from what last year was.” Translation: If you’re hoping for a miracle turnaround, you might wanna lower that expectations of yours.

Bottom line? Florida State fans better buckle up, ‘cause 2025 ain’t looking like a smooth ride. It’s looking like another bumpy, bruising season in Tallahassee. Mike Norvell’s gotta prove he can stop the bleeding—‘cause right now, the ‘Noles ain’t just wounded. They’re bleeding out.