The advent of data into the sporting realm has been a gift and a curse. Statistics have breached all levels of the symbolic hierarchy. From those sitting in front offices, bestowed with navigating organizations, to the promised land, all the way down to the fans. Even the “football is played on grass, not spreadsheets” crowd inadvertently dabbles in the numbers. So what happens when these numbers convey something unfathomable?

Shedeur Sanders, pending a Bowl game, has pivoted his focus towards the NFL. Joining him on April’s draft board shall be fellow QB Kurtis Rourke. Now granted that he may not have garnered the enthusiasm and admiration that Shedeur did, and perhaps deservedly. However, the Hoosiers’ signal-caller has been a revelation in Indiana. There is tangible evidence that suggests he’s been a top-2 quarterback in the country.

In terms of Expected Points Added per play, or EPA, Kurtis Rourke is only behind Cam Ward this season. Let’s have a little lesson about what this stat entails. EPA is essentially a measure of how much better you did than what was expected. For example, if a team starts a drive on the 50-yard line, its expected points to start the drive would be about 2.5. If the team ends the drive with a field goal worth 3 points, that is a 0.5 gain in EPA. A straightforward yet significant metric. At least significant in the eyes of Curt Cignetti! The full list of names can be found below:

Rourke has an EPA/p of 0.40. Meanwhile, Shedeur has a measly rating of 0.18. There are 10 QBs in front of him. Now, this in no way suggests there are 10 quarterbacks in CFB better than Shedeur Sanders. That would be ludicrous. However, it boosts Rourke’s stock in the eyes of potential franchises looking at quarterbacks. 

The consensus is that Shedeur is going to be the first quarterback off the board. The eye test, his dominance in a plethora of other statistical categories, and his physical traits support that. Meanwhile, Rourke isn’t even expected to be a Day 1 pick. So why does Shedeur have to worry about “The Maple Missile”?

Plan B could prevent Shedeur Sanders from being drafted by this team

As it stands, the franchise that needs a QB and is likely to have the highest draft pick among similar teams is the Las Vegas Raiders. They’re widely expected to be in the mix for Shedeur. But it is not a foregone conclusion that they’ll draft a QB in the first round.

The issues at the Raiders run so deep, that they might indulge in some acrobatics. There is a school of thought that the Raiders should trade back. This would allow them to draft multiple high-caliber picks. Filling out the supporting cast instead of going all-in on the quarterback. Then, draft a QB in the later rounds. Guess who’s been named as a potential option in the 3rd or 4th round? That is how Kurtis Rourke’s rising stock could lead to the chain of events that keep Shedeur Sanders away from Vegas.

Whatever direction the Raiders take, there are a multitude of great signal callers across the board. It’s likely there is none better than Shedeur. But scratching below the conspicuous surface and using stats such as EPA could be shrewd. Shedeur can rest on his laurels for the most part. There isn’t a shortage of suitors. However, a player like Kurtis Rourke can’t afford that luxury. He’ll hope the Raiders, or anyone in the same boat takes a chance at him.