To say a transcendent horror descended upon Columbus, Ohio, this Saturday wouldn’t be hyperbolic. The Buckeyes’, and by extension Ryan Day’s, biggest nightmares took a maize and blue form. Ohio State’s loss in The Game to Michigan may just have changed the trajectory of the program. Not only in the long run, but in the immediate as well.

It’s the slow knife that cuts deepest. Sherrone Moore and his team figuratively stabbed Ryan Day with one. They trudged to a 13-10 win very ploddingly, one defensive stop at a time. For Ohio State fans, the discourse in the backwash of this loss has mainly revolved around their head coach. Little attention has been paid to the repercussions it may have in the CFP picture. A precursor to these repercussions came in the form of the AP Poll. The committee has placed Ohio State in a very precarious spot.

Formerly no.2 OSU has tumbled all the way down to no.7 in the latest iteration of the poll. The Athletic’s CFB reporter Chris Vannini took particular issue with this. During his “Until Saturday” podcast, Vannini dragged the team right ahead of them in 6th into his argument. “I don’t understand how Ohio State should fall behind Tennessee, which is what they did in the AP Poll. I don’t, because I think the resumes aren’t even close”, he said. He laid an elaborate explanation of why Josh Heupel’s Vols should not be in front.

Vannini said, “Tennessee has a loss to Arkansas, and Ohio State has a loss to Michigan. Say those cancel each other out… Ohio State still has two top-10 wins.[They] beat Penn State, beat Indiana and played a 1-point game with the no.1 team on the road. All that Tennessee has after that is a win against Alabama. In what world should Tennessee be ahead of Ohio State? That feels like recency bias because of what we just saw”. While this may be true, the CFP committee has set a precedent in line with what the AP committee has conjured.

You’re only as good as your last game. As cliche as that sounds, it rings true with how the pieces have fallen for the CFP previously. Georgia, for instance, missed out last season on the back of one bad day in the SEC Championship. Florida State’s infamous exclusion was reasoned with a drop off in performances over the final two weeks without their QB. It is not directly due to the QB being injured. 7th isn’t necessarily where the CFP committee will have Ryan Day and the Buckeyes. However, there is reason for concern if they do.

Breaking down the huge problem OSU will incur if they’re behind Tennessee

It is true that at this stage of the season, the CFP rankings take precedence over the AP poll. Still, the poll can be used as a reference point for projections. Dissecting the CFP rankings has been a somewhat futile exercise. That’s because there are so many games left. Events like Michigan upsetting Ohio State could not be accounted for and factored into the projections. That’s not the case for much longer.

Chris Vannini broke down the reasons why the Tennessee-Ohio State conundrum matters. If the CFP ranking was parallel to the AP Poll, these two schools would face each other in the first round of the playoffs. The team ahead in the ranking will get to host the other at their home. As if home advantage isn’t already a big factor, it would be particularly important in this SEC-Big 10 matchup.

For a southern team that Heupel and co. are travelling to Ohio in December, which is daunting. The cold conditions will probably play a role in the outcome of the game. Therefore, the Buckeyes will have a considerable advantage if they are ahead of the Vols. They’ve lost at the Shoe already this weekend. A home playoff win would go some way in dissipating the heat on Ryan Day’s back. He’ll hope the CFP committee is more gracious than the AP.