College football traditionalists are seething. The sport is slowly evolving into something way different than what they fell in love with. NIL, the transfer portal, and playoff expansion have fanned the flames of this evolution and subsequent resentment from the masses. However, at the crux of what has attacked the essence of CFB has been conference realignment. Bluebloods and other historic programs left their natural habitats and loyalties at the door to, let’s be frank, maximize money. It led to the PAC-12 dissipating into the abyss. A conference etched in the fabric of the sport. Now, another Power conference stands on the precipice of the same fate. 

When USC President Carol Folt pushed for her football program to leave the PAC-12, she started a trend. Oregon, among others, followed suit with the Big 10. Then, this ordeal reverberated across from the Pacific coast to the south. Texas and Oklahoma, two programs synonymous with history, joined the SEC. All their fans and communities were figuratively uprooted, with some embracing change and others not quite. Staying close in the south, now a school more known for its ventures on the hardwood than the gridiron wants to move. UNC is angling for a move away from the ACC. You’d think this came about because of their newfound figurehead, Bill Belichick. Except, it’s been in the pipeline for over 2 years. Details previously kept under wraps have now boiled over to the surface.

Over the “College Football Addiction” YouTube channel, host and journalist TJ Pittinger relayed some intel. This came via The Athletic’s Matt Baker and Brendan Marks. The initial report says that UNC has spent over $600k on legal fees dating back to 2022. “It all seems to be centered around exploring options of leaving the conference,” discerned Pittinger. He also said, “This started for North Carolina, according to Baker, back in September of 2022. That was right after Texas and Oklahoma had been announced. That was before we got some of the Big 10 movement.

“In the article, It says ‘a source said this could be best described as the university doing its due diligence amid a constantly shifting landscape, rather than an aggressive legal ploy.’” Pittinger continued. The article also stated that a majority of the payments occurred in the past 5 months. Which points to Bill Belichick indeed being a catalyst. Scratch the surface, and there’s more.

The last 5 months coincided with seismic developments beyond just Bill Belichick’s arrival in Chapel Hill. “The time frame covers a pivotal period in realignment, maneuvering, and positioning. The immediate aftermath of Florida State and the ACC suing each other…lawsuits also filed by the ACC and Clemson and North Carolina State University System seizing more conference realignment power from individual schools,” relayed Pittinger. The two biggest brands in the conference, FSU and Clemson, have very publicly been trying to leave. While UNC has spent $600k quietly, FSU, for instance, has spent over $3 million and let everyone know too. But what has led to the UNC brass following this realignment trail blazed by their contemporaries?

“UNC seems to have no confidence right now in [the ACC’s] leadership,” remarked TJ Pittinger. In the aforementioned article, the UNC Board of Trustees’s chair, John Preyer, said, “I firmly believe that protecting UNC financially requires us to explore every available avenue. To depart a conference that is in financial decline and is primarily serving its bottom tier schools…the current commissioner is not serving our best interests.” The school recognizes that they have a short window of opportunity to make noise with and build a contender with Bill Belichick at the helm. The Belichick factor has certainly expedited the process. This begs the question. How much of a “financial decline” is the ACC compared to the SEC and Big 10? Conferences that all 3 of these schools look at from a lens of ‘If you can’t beat them, join them.’

Bill Belichick’s hire forces UNC’s hand to expedite the process

There’s a prevalent belief among the big boys in the ACC that the sport is moving towards a Power 2 of the B1G and the SEC. For good reason, too. Hence, these programs know they’re at the risk of being left behind. The ACC has signed an extension with ESPN to broadcast games up till 2036. Now the exact figures of this deal are veiled behind convoluted literature. However, each of the 17 members is poised to receive roughly $25 million as dividends each year as part of a $425 million payout. This number is only going to ramp up as years pass. While these numbers look gaudy, they’re well under what an SEC school stands to make.

The aforementioned YouTube channel relayed the estimated figures of how much each program stands to make depending on which conference they’re in. For instance, an SEC member will get paid a share of about $102 million from the ESPN money in 2028. Conversely, an ACC team stands to make $52 million. Over a long period, this discrepancy becomes massive. Think of the disadvantages on the recruitment front that Bill Belichick, Mike Norvell, and Dabo Swinney will have compared to Ryan Day or Kirby Smart. Once revenue sharing kicks in, it’ll make championship contention for teams outside those 2 conferences nearly impossible. Well, unless you’re an independent like Notre Dame. Which their scheduling ties to the ACC, the Irish are also connected to this.

It remains to be seen how things play out. Since ESPN has broadcasting rights to both the ACC and SEC, they hold a lot of power. The company can push for its biggest ACC brands to converge in the SEC, where the eyeballs will be higher. During a guest appearance on TJ Pittinger’s channel, fellow media member Drake C. Toll made a fair bit concerning rationale. “If anyone came to your university president and said, ‘Why don’t you join the SEC?’ They’re kind of handcuffed. At that point, they’re going, ‘Oh shoot, I kind of have to make $55 million a year from a TV contract, or I can make $30 million a year from a TV contract.’ It’s going to change your entire university and the way your Athletic Department operates. That is something that is tough to turn down,” he said.

There are two ways to look at this if you’re Mike Norvell or Dabo Swinney. Bill Belichick has either leapfrogged your respective programs and gets first preference of sorts if realignment comes about. Or Belichick will lift the tide collectively, and all 3 programs can benefit. Within all this, it’s important to keep perspective of how much of a farce it is that the broadcasters can make or break a program. Maybe those traditionalists do have a point after all, eh?