In this Playoff marathon, each team holding its cards close, bluffing when necessary, and hoping the chips fall in their favor. For Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers, Saturday’s ACC title game against SMU is the final hand. But with three losses on the season, are the Tigers sitting on a winning hand or just hoping to avoid folding altogether? Ranked 17 in the CFP poll, has the prey escaped from the claws of the Tigers?

Clemson’s playoff dreams are still flickering thanks to Miami’s stumble against Syracuse last week. That unexpected twist vaulted the Tigers into the ACC Championship, despite their own heartbreaking 17-14 loss to South Carolina. The Math is simple but daunting: coach Dabo Swinney and his cubs must beat an 11-1 Mustangs squad to keep their postseason hopes alive. A victory would crown the Tigers as ACC champions and give them a chance—albeit a slim one—at sneaking into the playoff field.

However, let’s not sugarcoat it: Clemson is up against the odds. Ranked 17th in the latest CFP rankings, the Tigers are a long shot to grab one of the coveted top-four spots, even with an ACC title in hand. Why? Three losses to CFP-ranked teams—Georgia, Louisville, and South Carolina—have bruised their résumé. But there’s a silver lining. “If we win, we’re in,” Swinney told reporters this week, channeling the team’s win-or-go-home mentality. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tigers a 43.8% chance to defeat SMU, but that’s a coin flip Clemson can’t afford to lose.

On the flip side, SMU is no pushover. The Mustangs have blazed through the season, with their lone loss coming against BYU. Their consistency and dominance have earned them the No. 3 spot in the CFP rankings, meaning Clemson would have to pull off a massive upset to take their place. A win could catapult the Tigers into playoff contention, but it likely wouldn’t guarantee a first-round bye, given the dominance of champions from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Mountain West.

If Clemson falters, the playoff conversation ends there. Four losses, including one in the ACC title game, would be insurmountable for the CFP committee. The Tigers would face an offseason of rebuilding, likely turning to the transfer portal—a path Swinney hinted at earlier this week. “After Monday, we’ll see where we need to improve,” he said, signaling a shift from his previous reluctance to embrace the portal era fully. As only coach Dabo can now spoil DeBoer’s crimson red themed party, if they win.

Dabo Swinney eyes transfer portal after Clemson’s recruiting dip

The orange and regalia are heading into a pivotal offseason with a bit of soul-searching to do. While the program has plenty on its plate, the finalization of its 2025 recruiting class has raised some eyebrows. Ranked 26th nationally, this is the Tigers’ lowest-rated class since Dabo Swinney’s first year at the helm—a tough pill to swallow for a program used to being at the top of the recruiting food chain.

While this group could still develop into a solid foundation, Dabo Swinney isn’t ruling out additional reinforcements. For a coach who has long emphasized player development and culture over quick fixes, the transfer portal might become a necessary tool this time around.

The HC recently hinted at exploring the portal after Monday, depending on how the offseason unfolds. “If something unexpected happens,” Swinney told Will Vandervort of The Clemson Insider, “you know you can go get a guy if you need it.” He noted that roster evaluation is ongoing, saying, “We met for an hour this morning on it.”

For now, though, all eyes will be on Saturday night.