Brian Kelly knows the stakes. A four-loss campaign in 2024 saw LSU slip off from the CFP conversation. Can they change history this season? Not so fast. If the oddsmakers are any indication, the road ahead is going to be tough. The Tigers enter the 2025 season with +2000 odds to win the CFP, tenth-best in the nation. That’s not a vote of confidence for a program that had playoff dreams a year ago. And the reason is plenty—a brutal schedule, a history of slow starts, and a season opener that could set the tone for the entire year. 

LSU insider Matt Moscona has a valid concern for Brian Kelly’s squad entering the 2025 season. In a new episode on After Further Review: LSU on March 31, he called out their season opener against Clemson as the main threat. “One of the reasons why I do think, why I understand why LSU is a little lower, it’s because they open at Clemson,” he plainly stated. “You can’t win the championship if you don’t make the playoff. So you got to get in.” But that’s easier said than done. 

LSU has lost five straight season openers, tied for the longest streak in program history. The last time they lost five was from 1991-95. The Tigers haven’t won a season opener since 2019, and Brian Kelly himself hasn’t started 1-0 since arriving in Baton Rouge in 2022. Facing a Clemson team that boasts an improved Cade Klubnik at QB and a ferocious defensive line, the odds are stacked against LSU breaking that drought this year. And if they lose, they’re putting heavy pressure on themselves to earn a playoff berth.

“If you lose that game, that means over the next 11 games, you got one game to play with. One,” Moscona warned. “After that, you’ve got no margin for error.” A 10-2 finish is the baseline for making the playoffs. With road matchups at Ole Miss, Alabama, and Oklahoma, plus tricky home games against South Carolina and Texas A&M, can we keep our fingers crossed?

“It’s why that Clemson game as the opener is so important,” the insider added. “I’m not telling you it’s a must-win because it’s not. It’s just massively important because if you don’t win it, your margin is gone.” But despite the tough odds, there’s still reason for optimism in Baton Rouge, and it starts with Garrett Nussmeier. 

Is it Garrett Nussmeier’s time to shine?

Garrett Nussmeier is back for another season, and he has LSU’s coaching staff buzzing. The Tigers’ assistant coach, Joe Sloan, couldn’t contain his excitement when discussing the returning QB’s development following spring practice. “No doubt,” he said. “Garrett’s fabulous. I’ve enjoyed coaching him every year in all his different situations and how he’s grown, he’s matured, and just the man he’s becoming, right? Who he’s becoming not only as a football player but as a person.” 

Nussmeier’s production last season was both encouraging and concerning. His 4,052 yards were among the best in the SEC, but his 12 interceptions cost LSU. But now, the mission is set and that’s to cut down on the mistakes and propel the Tigers’ offense to take the next step. With elite weapons at his disposal and a reloaded 2025 transfer class that ranks No. 1 in the nation, he has everything he needs to thrive.

Among the 16 transfers are eight impact players from SEC rivals—Patrick Payton, Jack Pyburn, Nic Anderson, Barion Brown, Donovan Green, Sydir Mitchell, Bauer Sharp, and Ja’Keem Jackson. The only question is if Garrett Nussmeier can seize the moment. But a loss at Clemson? The margin will be gone, and the scrutiny on Brian Kelly will only intensify.