Ever seen a one-man army try to fight off a whole battalion? That’s exactly the vibe Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty is giving heading into the Fiesta Bowl. The dude’s been straight-up terrorizing defenses all year, running like every defender owes him rent. But here’s the real talk: even Jeanty, with his Barry Sanders-esque stats, might not be enough to save the Broncos from the storm James Franklin’s Penn State is about to unleash. On New Year’s Eve, the stakes are higher than Snoop Dogg at Coachella for James Franklin, and the only question left is: Can Jeanty’s magic outshine Penn State’s Big 10 wrecking crew?

On December 25th, Josh Pate, CFB analyst, didn’t mince words on his show, ‘Josh Pate’s College Football Show.’ He made it crystal clear: Penn State’s got the edge. “Jeanty’s the most important piece of this game,” Pate said. “There’s no world where Boise wins without him going off.” He’s ain’t wrong. Ashton Jeanty got held under 140 yards exactly zero times this season, but Penn State’s run-game defense literally ranked No. 7 nationally. If there’s a squad that can contain Jeanty, it’s this one.

Pate also pointed out the mismatch on the other side of the ball: Penn State’s QB Drew Allar versus Boise’s pass defense, which ranks in the 100s. “If Allar gets going, Boise might not even make it interesting,” Pate added.

And with this game indoors in Glendale, there won’t be any weather excuses like the Big Ten Championship’s freezer-like conditions. Jeanty ain’t no regular running back; he’s a certified problem. This season alone, he’s racked up 2,497 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns, falling just 131 yards shy of Barry Sanders’ all-time record. He single-handedly dragged Boise State into the playoffs, raw-dogging every defense in his path. Week 2 against Oregon? Man put up 190 yards and three touchdowns on a team that almost snagged the No. 1 seed.

But Penn State? They got a defense so nasty, coordinators probably lose sleep prepping for them. Led by Abdul Carter, who’s been a menace since switching to defensive end, this crew isn’t just stopping plays—they’re ending dreams. Carter’s got 11 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss this season, and that’s just the slight tip of the iceberg.

Top Comment by Cowboy108

Mr. Jeanty will give them a handful for sure

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Spencer Danielson, Boise’s head coach, knows he’s in for a long night, gave big props to Carter, “I mean, going back through our season this year, I don’t think we’ve seen a defensive player like him. I mean very, very impressed with his game.”

Can Spencer Danielson & Ashton Jeanty pull off an upset?

Look, here’s the thing: Jeanty’s been untouchable, but this might be his kryptonite. Penn State’s defense isn’t just solid; it’s surgical. And while Jeanty’s been the Broncos’ entire offense, that’s exactly the problem. One guy can only do so much against a squad built like a brick wall. Penn State doesn’t just stop you; it breaks your spirit.

And if Boise’s secondary doesn’t step up, Allar’s gonna have a field day. This ain’t SMU, where Penn State cruised without needing a passing game. All thanks to Abdul Carter & Co. If Allar clicks with his receivers, this could turn into a blowout real quick. It’s not just about the matchup—it’s about the stakes. Penn State’s got everything to lose. They’ve literally got handed a dream playoff draw, and anything short of a semifinal appearance would be a failure.

Pate said it best: “You don’t assume you’ll get this lucky again. They’ve got to make it count.” For Boise, it’s all about keeping the dream alive. The Broncos and the Fiesta Bowl have a history, but nostalgia ain’t scoring touchdowns. This is about the here and now, and Penn State’s got the firepower to crush that magic underfoot.

If Jeanty goes nuclear, Boise might have a shot at pulling off another legendary Fiesta Bowl upset. But Penn State’s depth and balance make that a long shot. This game feels like a reality check waiting to happen. Jeanty’s story has been magical, but even magic has its limits. Prediction? Penn State by 14. The Broncos might hang tough for a while. End of the day, this is Penn State’s game to lose. Sorry, Boise—it’s been fun, but the clock’s about to strike midnight on this Cinderella run.