The adrenaline is yet to level out, and the dust is yet to settle on the 2025 NFL Draft. But there’s no standing on ceremony. We’re in the depths of the off-season now, without much to look ahead to before fall. They say the empty mind’s the devil’s workshop. Alas, airing hypotheticals about the next draft cycle an entire year in advance does seem a little devilish. But that’s sports discourse in a microcosm—people indulging in subjective hypotheticals- “what ifs”—more than objective reality. The player at the crux of this discourse isn’t unfamiliar with being spoken about ad nauseam either. It’s Texas’ new QB1, Arch Manning.

The NFL reciprocated the exact feelings that analysts and college football savants had about the ‘25 quarterback draft class. Weak, scarce of much upside. Merely two QBs got picked in round 1, compared to six in 2024. But peep over the horizon, and the rising class of ‘26 does project to be relatively more stacked. Suspend disbelief and assume these players connect the dots the way their talent dictates. Garrett Nussmeier, Drew Allar ,and LaNorris Sellers should make for a more top-heavy hierarchy. That said, the pièce de résistance will be Arch Manning. It’s ironic how one quarterback’s last name seemingly went against him in this iteration of the draft. But that Manning lineage does carry a certain eminence in the signal-calling world. Plus, Arch even has the tools in his repertoire to be a 1-1 pick. That said, will he even be in the draft for 2026? 

In a modernized era of CFB, Arch Manning is embracing tradition. The advent of NIL and the transfer portal facilitates players jumping ship. Wavering off-plan because the road became more treacherous than you thought. But Arch has stayed ten toes down. When he enrolled at UT-Austin and the Manning clan entrusted Steve Sarkisian with his development, the plan was to sit behind Quinn Ewers for a year and then take over the reins when he departs for the NFL. But Ewers stuck around for an extra year, meaning Manning was stashed behind him again. But he has stuck to the vision and bided his time. Now that he’s atop the depth chart, there are two ways this can go. A 1-and-done season as the starter, which seems to be the prevailing notion. Or he does 2 more seasons and, therefore, enters the draft in 2027. Michael Bratton, aka SEC Mike, aired what factors will decide the outcome.

Speaking on his “That SEC Podcast,” Mike seemed to think Arch Manning will stick around for the extra year. This is interesting because he’s currently +200 to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft. As hyperbolic as this seems, Vegas and the sportsbooks have picked their side. But Mike acknowledges it being a possibility. He brought up the circumstances under which he can see Arch Manning go to the NFL next year.

“You know, there are two things a Manning’s never done, and they’ve done literally everything else. They’ve never won a Heisman. They’ve never won a National Championship. If he does both next year, I think he’ll go. Word on the street is that he’s going to do two years, but things change. If you’re guaranteed number one [overall pick], you win a championship, you win a Heisman. What the he– is there to come back to?” remarked Bratton.

The rationale is fair. Coming out of high school, Arch Manning probably did envision moving on to the NFL in 2026. The extra year spent as a backup may alter that initial plan, but it may not. One full season of high-end play and production will be enough of a sample size for franchises to take him. For context, Texas is +550 to win the Natty this upcoming season. The second-best odds in the country. Manning himself is +600 to win the Heisman, the favorite. So it’s very much in the realm of possibility that this is how things transpire. Imagine the buzz around Arch in this scenario one year from now. That said, SEC Mike also brought up another circumstance where Arch Manning may prematurely bid adieu to Texas and CFB. Heisman and championship, or…

The NFL’s pursuit of Steve Sarkisian potentially dictates Arch Manning’s career

Year after year, Steve Sarkisian has taken strides in the coaching vertical. Going right back to his time as an assistant and then offensive coordinator, he has evolved and progressed. Not just in terms of his playcalling and schematics but also as a leader of men. No surprise that Sark has caught the attention of the NFL himself. Earlier in the off-season, Adam Schefter reported that Sarkisian was on the radar for the HC job for an anonymous franchise. There’s no smoke without fire. 

Although he quelled the chatter at the time and has recently penned an extension with Texas, the magnetic pull of coaching at the top echelon of the sport with the best talent it has to offer remains strong. There’s every chance a team comes in for Sark next season as well. Something that SEC Mike and his co-host Shane reckoned could turn into a double-swoop for both him and Arch Manning. “I don’t think this is going to happen. But let’s say Sarkisian takes an NFL job. Is [Manning] going to come back for the next coach?” asked Mike. “It may be a package deal. Sark may take the job…[and] just bring his Archie boy with him!” said Shane in reply. 

This was said in jest, of course, but it’s not as outlandish as you’d instinctively think. The Mannings have a lot of respect and reverence for Steve Sarkisian, and Arch is no different. If Sark did indeed move up a rung to the NFL, it really could alter Arch’s own plans. Whether that’s following him to the NFL or leaving Texas for a different school. But this is all well down the pipeline. There’s an entire season of football to play between now and that juncture. A lot can change with time, for better or for worse. Just ask his predecessor, Quinn Ewers. But it’s food for thought.