“What happens if the Trojans finish 7-5 or 8-4?”–“It means he’s on the hot seat.” Lincoln Riley didn’t come to USC Trojans to be ordinary. He wasn’t hired to stack up eight-win seasons and barely stay afloat in a conference loaded with giants. He was supposed to be the savior, the “QB whisperer” who turned Oklahoma into a perennial powerhouse and would do the same in Southern California. Instead, his tenure has been a rollercoaster of brilliance and bewilderment. One year, an 11-3 finish with Caleb Williams flashing Heisman magic; the next, an 8-win stumble that exposed the cracks in the Trojans’ foundation. Then came 2024—another step back, a 7-6 record, a Las Vegas Bowl win that felt more like a consolation prize than a statement. Now, the murmurs have turned into sirens. What happens if Riley can’t turn this thing around?

The pressure is real, and it’s not just the fans demanding answers. College football insiders are openly questioning whether Lincoln Riley can deliver on his promise. The latest critique came from Roman Tomashoff on the Locked On BIG 10 Squad, who laid it out bluntly: “The positive side of Lincoln Riley, USC is recruiting at a very, very high level right now. They’ve done a really great job on the recruiting trail, especially getting back into California, which has been such a truly embarrassing struggle for that program as of late. But on the other side, the success has not translated on the field.” The problem isn’t talent acquisition—Riley’s got that locked down. It’s what happens when that talent steps onto the field, when the hype meets the reality of Saturdays in the fall. The Trojans, for all their star power, haven’t played like an elite program.

They’ve looked good in flashes, but inconsistency and defensive struggles have plagued them at every turn. The hire of D’Anton Lynn as DC was supposed to be a game-changer. Instead, it was a reminder that schemes alone don’t fix foundational issues. This crossroads is more than just about wins and losses. Riley’s contract—an eye-watering deal reportedly worth $90 million—looms over the program like a safety net that might not hold much longer.

Pointing out the elephant in the room: “What are you gonna do with that contract? Where USC’s got money, like we all know that, but that 10 million a year… what’s that buyout gonna end up being? 70, 80 million dollars? You’re not necessarily going to make the move right away.” USC isn’t a program that fires coaches on a whim, but patience wears thin when expectations aren’t met. The Trojans have boosters willing to shell out serious cash for a winner, and if Riley isn’t delivering, someone else will.

Recruiting is the one area where Lincoln Riley has undeniably thrived, stacking up the No. 1 class in the nation and the No. 1 class in the B1G. That’s no small feat, especially with the program’s recent struggles. Even after losing a star QB to Colorado, the Trojans have reloaded, securing Jonas Williams as their next big-armed prospect.

The California pipeline, long a sore spot for USC, is finally looking healthy again with Simote Katoanga, Trent Mosley, Joshua Holland, John Fifita, and Madden Riorden—all high-ceiling prospects ready to restore the Trojans’ legacy. But here’s the catch—recruiting only matters if it translates to wins. Elite rosters mean nothing if they aren’t coached to their full potential, and that’s the criticism Riley can’t escape.

Even GM Chad Bowden has hinted at the program’s identity crisis, referencing what made USC great in the first place. “The reason why this place won a national championship back in 2005?” That’s the question everyone wants an answer to. Back then, it was about dominance. Pete Carroll’s Trojans were stepping on the throat of every opponent they faced. It was Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, and a swagger that made USC the epicenter of college football. That swagger is gone. The Trojans still have the brand, but the results don’t match the reputation.

Another seven- or eight-win campaign, and the whispers about his future will grow louder. The buyout math won’t seem so daunting if the Trojans continue to underperform. Riley has shown he can recruit, he can scheme, he can build a program that looks elite on paper.

Chad Bowden’s secret recipe for a Lincoln Riley comeback

USC doesn’t live on paper. If Trojans are going to rise back to national championship glory, one key question stands out: What will make it possible?

For USC Football GM Chad Bowden, the answer is clear as day—keeping California’s top talent in California. “The reason why this place won a national championship back in 2005? If you look and do research, over 80 percent of the classes that were signed back then were from the state of California. So I know the proof, and I know where it’s located,” Bowden explained.

He’s not wrong. That 2004-05 USC squad was a juggernaut, steamrolling through the competition en route to a national title. Now, Bowden’s mission is simple: get back to those roots. “My plan and my vision is to bring that back and to take care of this state. The state deserves it.”

So far, it looks like Bowden and Lincoln Riley’s recruiting machine are doing exactly that. The Trojans currently boast the No. 1 recruiting class of 2026, with 12 commits already on board—a whopping 67 percent coming from in-state. If USC continues to lock down California’s best, Bowden’s vision might just turn into reality.