Entering Week 10 of the season, the College Football Playoff picture is gradually taking shape. While there has been much debate about the latest iteration of the AP Poll, there are virtually no qualms with the committee’s ranking of the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (6-1). The Bulldogs are dominating their competition as ever from the onset and currently hold a 4-1 record in conference play. However, the short 73-mile journey from Sanford Stadium to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium may not be in the cards for them come December.

Georgia has been a mainstay in the SEC Championship Game over recent seasons. They have played in six of the last seven, including en route to their national title in 2022. However, Kirby Smart and his team have their work cut out to continue this modern tradition this year. As it stands, the Georgia Bulldogs do not control their own destiny under the new CFP format.

The restructured conferences and divisions mean that now the top two teams in the SEC will go to Atlanta. Not top two by ranking, but rather by record. Those two spots are currently occupied by Texas A&M (7-1, 5-0 in the SEC) and Georgia. So what’s the problem? Surely they can just win out till the end and make it?

Well, no. Georgia’s loss to Alabama throws a spanner in the works. This solitary loss means Smart’s team can win their remaining three games against fellow SEC programs and, at best, finish 7-1 in the conference. Meanwhile, LSU (6-2, 3-1 in the SEC) faces Alabama next. If they mirror Georgia and also manage to win out, they will surpass Georgia in the conference, by virtue of holding the tiebreaker against them with a potential win against the Tide.

The rules state that the tiebreaker goes to the team with a better record against common opponents. So LSU will edge out Georgia under the aforementioned circumstances. Texas A&M too will finish ahead if they win out, being undefeated in the SEC so far. These hypotheticals naturally fall into place and Georgia’s fortunes become clearer after the Nov 9 clash at Tiger Stadium. The loser of that LSU-Alabama game can bid farewell to their postseason hopes.

Not making the conf. championship affects Kirby Smart’s National Title goals

Not making it to the SEC Championship Game won’t just break a healthy habit for Smart’s team; it will also have repercussions in their quest to reach the National Championship Game, ironically also set to take place in Atlanta. Under the new format, the top four conference champions receive a first-round bye. Without this bye, Georgia will have to play an extra game in the playoffs, increasing the chances of a potential upset.

Kirby Smart will hope Kalen DeBoer can do him a favor and beat LSU. Kalen DeBoer after all needs the result for himself more than anyone with his team’s season on the line, and perhaps more. Georgia meanwhile head south to Jacksonville, FL to face the Gators as heavy favorites(-16.5). They will look to avoid an untimely upset at this precarious juncture.