The advent of data and, by extension, AI has been a gift and a curse for the sporting realm. Statistics have breached all levels of the hierarchy. From those sitting in front offices, tasked with navigating organisations to the promiseland, all the way down to the fans. Even the “football is played on grass, not spreadsheets” crowd is inadvertently dabbling in the numbers. You may despise it, but if you’re playing fantasy or gambling, you’re bound to be using it. So what happens when AI conveys something that goes not just against the masses but itself? That’s what’s happened with its Orange Bowl analysis.

The semifinal game is around the corner, and it potentially stands to be a classic. Both Penn State and Notre Dame are going through adversity on the injury front. Key pieces could be missing on both sides. They’ve both traversed the first two rounds of the CFP with similar pomp. As such, the game stands on an even keel. This is reflected in the betting markets, with the Fighting Irish very marginal favorites (-1). What goes into formulating these spreads is a lot of data. The same currency used by Artificial Intelligence. However, we asked ChatGPT to predict the game. The results aren’t completely in line with what Vegas thinks. 

First off, the battle of the two studs under centre

As a bit of an appetizer, the question floated was, “Which Quarterback will have a better game?” Both Drew Allar and Riley Leonard are largely in the same stratosphere in terms of their current level. So the question does present an interesting one. The prevailing wisdom is that Allar has a better arm and has an advantage through the air. Meanwhile, Leonard has the better legs. As per AI, in the process of reaching its conclusion, “Drew Allar could be in for a slightly tougher test in this matchup, especially with the presence of Notre Dame’s pass rush and defence, which is more proven at this point.” It’s noteworthy that Notre Dame will be without Riley Mills in that aspect. Mills leads the team in sacks. ChatGPT then spewed its “final verdict”, which may have overlooked one more facet. 

ChatGPT claimed, “Riley Leonard has a slightly higher ceiling for the Orange Bowl, given his ability to extend plays and create with his legs, especially if the game becomes chaotic with both defenses bringing pressure… It’ll be close, but Leonard may have the edge in a more versatile, dynamic performance.” This discernment, though, doesn’t address the elephant in the room. Abdul Carter, the premier pass rusher in the sport, may not partake in the game owing to an arm injury. Naturally, it made sense to ask the AI its predictions after factoring that in. So we asked it the million-dollar question with and without a caveat. What shall be the scoreline if Abdul Carter doesn’t play? The result is eyebrow-raising, to say the least.

Abdul Carter is deemed to be worth a sizeable point swing in the final scoreline for the Orange Bowl

Carter is unequivocally the best player on the Nittany Lions. It’s not a far cry to say he’s the best player across both rosters. If he plays, the impact he’s able to have could single-handedly (no pun intended) swing the result. ChatGPT acknowledged his importance, saying his absence “would alter the prediction”. Despite this, it sensationally expects James Franklin to overcome his proverbial big-game demons. AI (officially?) thinks Penn State will win the Orange Bowl, whether Abdul Carter plays or not. However, there are different margins of victory for either case. Here’s its scoreline prediction and analysis both with and without Carter in the fray-

If Abdul Carter does play, ChatGPT thinks Penn State will win 24-20 in the Orange Bowl. Not too much of a discrepancy from where the market sits. But they do believe it’s Notre Dame that holds the edge, so there is a difference in decree nonetheless. “I think it’ll be a hard-fought, physical game, with Penn State’s defense ultimately making one or two more key stops.” read the A.I. Without Carter, it slims down to the barest of margins.

“If Abdul Carter is out, I still think Penn State has the talent to win, but it becomes much more of a toss-up. Notre Dame would likely have a better chance to move the ball effectively, especially in the run game, and their offense might find more rhythm…Special teams, turnovers, and overall execution will become even more critical for Penn State in his absence.” spewed the robot. It expects the Orange Bowl to then go 21-20 in favor of the Nittany Lions. 

College Football feeds off hypotheticals. Strength of schedule, quality wins, quality losses and its branches. This AI verdict adds another wrinkle to that. Alas, the orthodox people over in South Bend will not welcome its verdict. Just another thing for Marcus Freeman and his Fighting Irish to prove wrong. As for Penn State, it should give them confidence if, indeed, they miss Abdul Carter.