College football traditionalists are vexed, and for good reason. The sport is drifting further and further away from what they fell in love with. NIL, the transfer portal, and playoff expansion have fanned the flames of this evolution and subsequent resentment from the people. However, at the crux of the liberalization of CFB has been conference realignment. Bluebloods and other historic programs left their natural habitats and loyalties at the door to—let’s be frank—maximize money. It led to the PAC-12 basically retiring to the history books. A conference etched in the fabric of the sport. Now, the ACC is staring at the same fate. They’re putting up a fight, though.

This travesty began with USC leaving the PAC-12 to join a conference based thousands of miles away. All their fans and communities were figuratively uprooted and asked to follow their teams in faraway states. The trend continued with Oregon, among others, following suit to the Big 10. Then, it reverberated across from the Pacific coast to the south. Texas and Oklahoma, two programs synonymous with tradition, joined the SEC. Staying in the south, it looks like two more blue-chip programs are looking to move away.

Florida State and Clemson have been trying to get out of the ACC. The conference has signed an extension with ESPN to broadcast games until 2036. Now, the exact details of this deal are hidden behind convoluted literature. However, each of the 17 members is poised to receive roughly $25 million as dividends initially as part of a $425 million payout. This number is only going to ramp up as years pass. This payout is way, way less lucrative than what SEC schools, for instance, stand to make. By 2027, the difference will be about $30 million each year.

That means if FSU and Clemson stay put till 2036, they stand to make over $600 million less combined. Naturally, they fear falling behind the competition. With revenue sharing around the corner, imagine the handicap on the recruitment front. Mike Norvell and Dabo Swinney will be hamstrung in their efforts. This was relayed by Attorney Doug Rohan, an FSU fan, on the Locked on ACC podcast. He also gave intel on a desperate attempt from the ACC to keep the big boys around. One that actually will never even help once you contextualize it.

Alex Donno first concurred with reports about the ACC planning two initiatives that will pay money to certain members. A “success initiative” and a “brand initiative.” The success initiative is simple—programs that do better are paid better. The brand initiative is more problematic that aims to “provide weighted revenue payouts for the league’s high-profile schools”.

“In terms of the ACC, there’s a few things we’ve heard about. Like the ‘Success Initiative’ which is going to happen, which is based on…’If you win more in football and basketball, you advance through the playoffs and through the tournament, you get extra money…revenue..’ Then they’re also talking about this brand initiative, which I know, is a little bit controversial, and this seems like this is something that Florida State and Clemson both wanted where you have more fans, you have better tradings, you sell more merch, you make more money for the conference,” Donno said.

“You know, the Florida States and the Clemsons make more than the Wake Forests and the Boston colleges of the world. So, are those the concessions you see…the ACC probably possibly giving up here? And is that enough to make Florida State and Clemson somewhat happy?” Donno asked.

If members are paid out differently, it will inadvertently create a divide among the conference. Not only will it ruin the sanctity of fair competition, but it could also create a domino effect across other conferences. Michigan and Bama can ask for a bigger piece of the pie from their own conferences and so on. But that’s a whole ‘nother can of worms. Staying with the FSU and Clemson POV, Doug Rohan dispelled a notion. He explained how even a brand initiative won’t get these programs to a competitive level with the SEC schools.

To this, Doug Rohan responded, “The reality is, what kind of numbers are we talking about? The Success initiative was a pool of $20 million total if I remember correctly. That was split among four or five teams. So, $5 million, $4 million going [to each one]. The gap after 2027 is $30 million to the SEC schools. We’re not talking about a figure that’s going to come even remotely close to that for Clemson and Florida State.” said the Attorney. He elaborated on how the brand initiative pot, details of which aren’t public, won’t be much bigger than the success initiative pot. 

“There’s no way that ESPN, who again is chasing the discount, is also saying, ‘Yeah, we’ll put another $40 million into the kitty.’ Really, it needs to be closer to $100 million if it’s going to be split between four or five different teams!” he exclaimed. “So even if they were to come up with a figure to add to the annual payouts to Clemson and Florida State. I can’t imagine that number is higher than $5-6 million. That’s not sufficient.” This does seem to be headed towards a divorce, given there are no resolutions in sight.

“So that’s what leaves a question of a settlement still in limbo. Because a settlement is going to need a number closer to 15 or 20 million—that’s when Clemson will be okay, and Florida State will be okay with saying, ‘Okay, we’ll stay till 2031’. The other part of it is…did they chop some time off the grant of rights instead of 2036 being the ultimatum? Do we have some agreement to announce our withdrawal at 2029 for an actual withdrawal at 2031? That would be in line with the other conference contracts that are up. That would be consistent with the idea of a new realignment phase. So that’s the type of concession that paired with a substantial increase in money, could make a settlement agreement feasible for both sides.”

FSU and Clemson have been public about their wishes. UNC, it’s been reported, has also been working towards the same. Privately, from the shadows.

Bill Belichick’s arrival forces UNC to expedite their own efforts to realign away from the ACC

UNC is angling for a move away from the ACC for the same reasons for falling behind the 8-ball financially. A school more known for its ventures on the hardwood than the gridiron. You’d think this came about because of their newfound figurehead, Bill Belichick. It makes sense if they want to maximize their window as contenders with the greatest coach ever at the helm. Except, this move has been in the pipeline for over 2 years. Details previously kept under wraps have now boiled over to the surface.

Over the “College Football Addiction” YouTube channel, host and journalist TJ Pittinger relayed some intel that came via The Athletic’s Matt Baker and Brendan Marks on February 12. The initial report says that UNC has spent over $600k on legal fees dating back to 2022. “It all seems to be centered around exploring options of leaving the conference,” discerned Pittinger. An excerpt from the article read, “A source said this could be best described as the university doing its due diligence amid a constantly shifting landscape, rather than an aggressive legal ploy.” The article also stated that over 50% of the $600k occurred in the past 5 months. This points to Bill Belichick’s arrival indeed being an additional factor expediting the process. For context, FSU has spent over $3 million on legal fees to get out of the ACC.

In the aforementioned article, the UNC Board of Trustees’s chair, John Preyer, said, “I firmly believe that protecting UNC financially requires us to explore every available avenue. To depart a conference that is in financial decline and is primarily serving its bottom tier schools… the current commissioner is not serving our best interests.” The powers at FSU and Clemson probably echo these sentiments. The ‘brand initiative’ stipulation appears to be a middle ground that will leave all parties involved with persistent problems. On top of new ones.

Mike Norvell’s FSU and Dabo Swinney’s Clemson don’t become instant contenders. Neither does Bill Belichick’s UNC if they were able to get things going. Plus, the ACC is setting a poor precedent for the other conferences. The other ACC members are assuredly going to rebel against the idea of being paid less, too. It remains to be seen what comes of this ordeal. But the signs do not bode well with this stopgap solution.