Alex Condon wasn’t supposed to be here—at least, not this soon. The 6-foot-11 Australian big man arrived at Florida as a project—athletic, full of potential, but not quite NBA-ready. Fast forward a few months, and he’s flipping that script.

ESPN had him pegged at No. 26 in early February. By March? He’s skyrocketed to No. 16 per Condon’s stock. And it’s not just about the numbers—it’s about the way he’s impacting the game. His steady rise turned into a full-blown breakout when he torched Alabama for 27 points and 10 boards, putting the basketball world on notice.

Now, the question isn’t if he’s NBA material—it’s whether he’s the playmaking big the Hawks have been searching for to anchor their future frontcourt.

Florida’s success this season has largely been credited to its trio of elite guards—Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, and Will Richard—but Mark Titus, on a recent episode of The Kevin O’Connor Show, made it clear that Condon is the X-factor. “I think what’s really made Florida more like an actual viable national title contender is Condon. I think Condon makes the difference for them because guards—as good as those guards are—there just aren’t a lot of teams that have those great guards surrounding a guy like Condon, who is a playmaker,” Titus said. “I love his passing ability, I love his feel and his touch around the rim.”

Condon’s passing ability stands out for a big man. In Florida’s 99-94 win (in early March) over Alabama, he and Clayton Jr. connected on two dunks within a minute of each other—the second one putting the Gators up by 12 with under eight minutes left. Alabama didn’t get within five points until the final 90 seconds. Condon’s vision and quick decision-making in the half-court give Florida an offensive dimension that few teams can match.

Statistically, Condon’s numbers back up the eye test. He’s been putting in the work—averaging 11.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game while shooting a solid 50.2% from the field. And he’s doing all that in just 25 minutes a night over 31 games. Efficient, productive, and only getting better.

He’s also improved his three-point shooting from 28.9% as a freshman to 32.7% this year. Jonathan Givony, in his draft report for ESPN, noted that Condon’s two-way impact is catching the attention of NBA scouts: “Still growing into his body in his fifth year of organized basketball, and with work to do on his perimeter shooting, another season at Florida could propel his standing into lottery territory next season.”

The Hawks are reportedly intrigued by Condon’s versatility. Jeremy Woo highlighted his playmaking ability as a major asset for Atlanta: “Condon’s passing ability and overall feel could help enhance lineups for the Hawks long-term, giving them a change of pace up front.” But the key question remains his shooting. Woo added, “Investing in a playmaking big such as Condon would be an interesting direction here.”

Condon’s defensive versatility and motor make him a valuable NBA prospect

Condon’s defensive upside also gives him a legitimate path to NBA success. He’s averaging 1.4 blocks per game and has shown the ability to switch onto guards and defend in space. His motor—a byproduct of his past as an Australian Rugby and water polo player—allows him to contest shots at the rim while closing out effectively on the perimeter. He’s not yet a defensive anchor, but his instincts and lateral quickness make him a switchable weapon in the right system.

If there’s one area that needs improvement, it’s his shooting consistency. He’s shooting 61.3% from the free-throw line, which raises concerns about his touch. But Givony believes Condon’s work ethic and year-over-year improvement suggest that his perimeter shooting will eventually translate. “The Australian big man acts as a significant playmaking hub in Florida’s offense with his excellent ballhandling and passing ability while covering ground fluidly defensively and making plays with his mobility and sharp basketball instincts,” Givony wrote.

For those questioning whether Condon can hold his own against elite competition, his performance against Auburn’s Johni Broome should answer that. In Florida’s upset win (90-81 win in early February) over the No. 1 team in the country, Condon posted 17 points on 7-for-10 shooting, grabbed 10 rebounds, and dished out four assists—all while holding Broome to 8-for-19 shooting. That type of two-way impact is why scouts see Condon as a late first-rounder.

Although, Condon’s rise hit a snag with a right ankle sprain in Florida’s early February loss to Mississippi State—he didn’t stay down for long. His stunning return only reinforced why the comparisons to Jakob Poeltl and Isaiah Hartenstein are spot on. A high-energy big with playmaking flair and defensive versatility? That’s hard to ignore.

Evan Miya’s Bayesian Player Ratings back it up: Condon ranks No. 19 overall with a 7.01 rating, including a 3.87 OBPR and a 3.14 DBPR. Even sidelined, the numbers paint a clear picture.

Condon may not be a finished product, but the foundation is undeniable. His motor, passing touch, and growing confidence as a scorer have put him on the NBA map. If the Hawks take him at No. 26, they’d be betting on his long-term upside. Given Condon’s rapid improvement and basketball IQ, that’s a bet worth making.