The Duke standout has been a dominant force in college basketball this season, leading the Blue Devils in nearly every statistical category. But with the NBA Draft approaching, Cooper Flagg has a decision to make: to declare fully and leave college behind or keep his college options open for a stay-or-go decision. Then again, it could be made based on the results of the NBA’s draft lottery.

From the very start of Cooper Flagg’s freshman season at Duke, he has been nothing short of spectacular. He is not only leading his team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks but also helping to carry the Blue Devils into the NCAA tournament. Even the Cameron Indoor Stadium crowd has begun to chant, “One more year!” hoping that Flagg would return for his second season. Flagg himself got in on the action, mouthing “Run it back,” adding to speculation about his future at Duke or in the NBA.

However, it’s not just about his love for college basketball. According to a report from Andy Staples at On3, if Flagg doesn’t like where he lands in the draft, he has the option to pull out and return to Duke. “Players have until June 15 to withdraw from the draft. The lottery is on May 12…Team Flagg can send out all sorts of smoke signals. If the Wizards or Hornets win the lottery, they’d better trade the pick or the Maine Event is headed back to Durham,” wrote Staples.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. If Flagg decides to skip the draft for another year, it could end up costing him—big time. By staying in college, Flagg would delay signing a rookie max contract, which could be worth up to $398.5 million over five years. That’s nearly $80 million a season if we’re talking about the 2024-2025 salary cap and a 10% increase.

Meanwhile, staying at Duke might feel tempting in some ways, it’s difficult to overlook the potential financial implications. And yet Flagg isn’t exactly starving. His meteoric success has made him the second-highest-paid college athlete in the nation for Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) contracts. With deals from major brands, including New Balance, Gatorade and Fanatics, he’s racking up millions, even before he plays in the NBA.

Cooper Flagg’s jaw-dropping freshman year draws major comparisons

It isn’t an exaggeration to say that Flagg’s first year on campus has been a revelation. The young guard is averaging 19.6 PTS, 7.5 REB, 4.2 AST, 1.6 STL and 1.2 BLK per game — not numbers you usually see from a first-year player. He’s actually on course to become the first freshman since Ben Simmons to lead his team in all five of the major categories.

Looking at the complete picture, comparisons to Zion Williamson were always unavoidable under the circumstances. After all, Flagg has been honored as ACC Rookie of the Week 11 times and has garnered both the Rookie and Player of the Week awards on five different occasions. That’s right, just like Zion in 2018-19.

In retrospect, Zion’s historic 2018-19 season was among the most dominant freshman seasons in college basketball history. And Flagg’s season has been the subject of many comparisons to that. As such, both were regarded as top prospects for the NBA draft. But now there seems to be one big difference. Guess what? A lot of analysts are of the opinion that Flagg might even be better. Sam Vecenie, an NCAA basketball analyst, agrees: “Cooper Flagg’s floor is so much higher than what Zion’s is. Yeah, I guess Zion’s ceiling is a little bit higher, but I don’t know how much higher. It’s not like crazy, crazy, ridiculously higher… If you made me bet right now, I will have a higher grade on Cooper than I did on Zion.”

Flagg’s eye-popping stats and steady performances already have him atop the KenPom Player of the Year standings. At 2.910, his rating is the best in stats history, surpassing 2014-15 Frank Kaminsky’s 2.794. If he continues to produce this way, Flagg might not just be another NBA prospect—he might be one of the next superstars in the league.

A question arises. What will be Cooper Flagg’s decision? Will he risk millions and play the waiting game and use the NBA’s draft lottery as a  leverage to control where he plays? Or will he pursue the big bucks and make the leap to the pros? Whichever case it is, Flagg’s call will be a game-changer. He has a long future ahead of him and fans are waiting to see what happens next.