It was Duke’s matchup against Miami on January 14. Some three hours before the game started, early-bird fans headed to the on-campus team store across from Cameron Indoor. However, a setback was waiting for them, as the store had put up a 5-word notice on a piece of paper: COOPER FLAGG JERSEYS ONLINE ONLY. The store manager spilled out the reason: An ugly stampede a few days back. The reason?

Flagg had dropped 42 points, an ACC single-game freshman record, against Notre Dame in Duke’s January 11 win. The fans kind of broke into the store and wiped every piece of Flagg jersey off every single rack. Empty hangers were still dangling in the store! The manager could only say that they’d be restocked for the next home game. Another 10,000 Flagg jerseys are on a rush order. “Ten thousand? Surely that’s a joke,” a passerby commented. It is not. That hype comes for a reason.

Debuting for Jon Scheyer’s squad in November last year in a game vs Maine Black Bears, Flagg stopped the heart of every spectator. His 18 points, seven rebounds, five assists, and three steals in 30 minutes of action in the 96-62 win, and finishing as the team leader in rebounds and steals was only the beginning. Having planted the seed of expectation in the fandom, the only way was up. And, boy, did he execute. As the season concluded, the star player is leading Duke in points (19.5), rebounds (7.7), assists (4.0) and blocks (1.3) per game. What’s more?

Before the US team embarked on a trip to Paris, Flagg was one of the 15 players selected to train with the Olympic roster, which included superstars like Stephen Curry and LeBron James. In brief, as per journalist Jeff Zillgitt, “Cooper played like he belongs and acted like he belongs.” The youngster not only made two 3-pointers over All-NBA Defense selection Anthony Davis, a short turnaround jumper over Jrue Holiday but also pulled off a putback plus an and-one over Bam Adebayo. With such talent it is but obvious that talks around his potential shift to the NBA will gain steam. But there is a twist in the story.

Speaking to The Athletic‘s Brendan Quinn and Brendan Marks, the player remarked earlier this month, “S***, I want to come back next year.” Fans could not have been more excited. And one anonymous Blue Devils alumni went up to the extent of staking a whopping $53,000 on Fanstake. For those unaware, Fanstake is a platform that lets fans step in and to a real say in keeping their favorite athletes. By pledging financial support toward NIL deals, fans can help influence where players go and, more importantly, where they stay! Not to worry, if the stake doesn’t work out, one does not lose any money. If the player doesn’t take the deal, you get every penny back.

Interestingly, by comparison, two other schools eyeing the eventual NBA superstar, UCLA, and Alabama, have pulled $100 and $50, respectively. Looks like an uphill battle, indeed! But won’t staying at the college delay Cooper a huge share of cash?

Here comes the NIL money that in the NCAA made the prospect of staying another year in college lucrative for amateurs. Last December, top high school recruit AJ Dybantsa reportedly received a $7 million deal to play at BYU. The first-year salary of 2024 No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher is around $12.5 million, but the difference between the NBA and NCAA could be justified by one more year of polishing the skills in the amateurs and the opportunity to win a national championship.

However, the decision is not all about their rookie-scale contract. It’s also about their long-term deals, which can be significantly larger than their rookie deals. By staying another year in college, Flagg would delay his second NBA contract by a year. A rookie deal lasts four years, so if Flagg opts into the 2025 draft, he’d start his second contract by the 2029–2030 season. The rookie scale maximum can be 30% of a team’s salary cap, and assuming a 10% maximum cap increase (the 2024–2025 salary cap is $140.59 million), Flagg’s second contract could be worth close to 400 million over five years—or nearly $80 million per year. But looks like Cooper has incentives to opt for college.

Can March results change Cooper Flagg’s decision?

Now with March Madness looming, the heat is on Flagg. If Duke wins the national championship, it might well be the ideal way to end his college career, and he may think it’s time to turn professional. But if Duke doesn’t quite reach the peak of Mount Championship, Flagg may consider himself to have unfinished business, and return for another chance at glory. He has already said, “I always wanted to play in college at the highest level and compete for a national championship. That sort of thing is what I dreamed about.” Now, Consider one more aspect.

Since freshman NCAA eligibility first came into being in 1972-73, only two freshmen, Kevin Durant and Zion Williamson, have earned unanimous men’s National Player of the Year honors. Anthony Davis barely missed out on unanimous NPOY honors, but became one of four freshmen ever named Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four while leading a team to the national championship. No freshman ever, meanwhile, has led his team in every major statistical category and played in the NCAA Tournament. Flagg could do all of it. He is the favorite to win every National Player of the Year award.

On the money side of things, with NIL deals only getting richer, Flagg isn’t precisely walking away from any cash by staying. His NIL valuation is already a cool $4.8 million based on partnerships with high-profile companies such as Fanatics and Gatorade. He, in fact, made history this past October as the first men’s college basketball player to sign an NIL deal with Gatorade. Ultimately, Cooper Flagg’s decision to either stay at Duke or declare for the NBA Draft is larger than the fate of one player — it’s the future of college basketball and the NBA Draft landscape. His decision may set a precedent for athletes considering whether to play at the collegiate level or turn professional.