Bruce Pearl knows better than to feel comfortable as the No. 1 seed. Auburn landed the top spot in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, but Pearl isn’t fooled by the ranking—he knows this path isn’t easy. “A couple of years ago, Houston had to play us when we were an eight or nine-seed in Birmingham,” Pearl said. “Now, Birmingham was a couple of hours away, obviously, um, but Auburn travels.”

Alabama State, meanwhile, is riding a wave of momentum after their wild First Four win over Saint Francis (PA). Tied at 68 with just 3.4 seconds left, Micah Simpson launched a full-court pass that somehow bounced into the hands of Amarr Knox.

AK laid it up with less than a second left — game over! Knox finished with 16 points as the Hornets secured their first-ever NCAA Tournament win. But now, they’re facing a quick turnaround against the top-seeded Tigers. Tipoff is set for 1:50 p.m. CT on CBS at Rupp Arena.

Auburn’s vs Alabama’s Starting Five and Injury Report: Amid 1st Round

Alabama State’s win over Saint Francis wasn’t pretty, but it was gritty—and that’s exactly why they’ve got a shot to make this game interesting.

Amarr Knox led the way on 8-of-15 shooting while adding two steals. TJ Madlock backed him up with 11 points on an efficient 5-of-8 from the field, pulling down 7 rebounds and dishing out two assists. CJ Hines struggled from the floor (4-for-15) but still put up 10 points with 3 rebounds and 2 assists. Jasteven Walker and Micah Octave had quieter nights, scoring 4 points each while combining for 8 rebounds.

Off the bench, Micah Simpson hit some key shots, scoring 9 points on 3-of-8 shooting (3-for-7 from deep). D’Ante Bass chipped in with 8 points and a team-high 7 rebounds in just 18 minutes. Alabama State shot 42.9% from the field but just 31% from three—and a brutal 25% from the free-throw line could be costly against Auburn.

Alabama State projected starting five:

• Jasteven Walker (#25)
• Micah Octave (#11)
• CJ Hines (#3)
• TJ Madlock (#20)
• Amarr Knox (#1)

Auburn, on the other hand, brings elite talent and depth. The Tigers’ offense runs through Johni Broome, who’s averaging a dominant 18.9 points and 10.6 rebounds while shooting 51.3% from the field. He’s also Auburn’s top defender, swatting 2.4 shots per game.

Chad Baker-Mazara is Auburn’s second-leading scorer at 12.6 points per game while shooting 46.7% from the field and 39.1% from three. He also leads the team in steals with 2.1 per game. Miles Kelly adds scoring on the wing with 11.5 points per game while having 42.5% of FG.

In the backcourt, Tahaad Pettiford averages 11.0 points and 2.9 assists per game while hitting 37.6% from three. Denver Jones adds 10.7 points while knocking down 35.7% from behind the 3-point arc and 86.4% from the free throw line. Auburn’s balance and scoring depth make them a nightmare matchup for Alabama State’s defense.

Auburn projected starting five:

• Tahaad Pettiford (#0) 
• Denver Jones (#12)
• Drake Cardwell (#17)
• Chad Baker-Mazara (#10)
• Johni Broome (#4)
   

Denver Jones has been dealing with a lower-body issue since early March, but he’s played through it and is expected to start. Luckily for the Alabama State, there have been no injury concerns heading into this one.

Bruce Pearl’s Auburn Set to Overpower Alabama State

Alabama State is flying high after their First Four win, but Auburn is a whole different challenge. The Hornets shot 42.9% from the floor and 31% from three against Saint Francis, but that’s not going to cut it against a top-tier Auburn defense. The Tigers hold opponents to just 48.3% shooting from the field and maintains 59.4% true shooting range — so Alabama State needs to find open looks and convert them.

Auburn’s offense is elite, ranking among the top 40 nationally in both two-point and three-point shooting. They’ve got the size and scoring depth to overwhelm Alabama State, and their ball security is impressive—they’ve posted a turnover rate of just 13.4% this season. Alabama State forced 5 steals against Saint Francis, but Auburn’s backcourt isn’t going to cough it up that easily.

Alabama State’s defense will need to be sharp. The Hornets mixed up looks with some full-court pressure and a 2-3 zone in the First Four, which helped them disrupt Saint Francis’ rhythm. But Auburn’s ball movement and interior strength are on another level. Broome’s presence in the paint could be a major issue, especially if Alabama State’s front line gets into foul trouble.

The Hornets will also need to improve from the free-throw line after going just 1-for-4 against Saint Francis. Against Auburn, every point counts—missed free throws could quickly turn into fast-break buckets for the Tigers.

Auburn comes into this one as a massive favorite, and the sportsbooks are showing it. According to ESPN BET, Auburn is listed at -31.5 on the spread, with the total set at 150.5 (both the over and under are at -110). Alabama State’s moneyline is off the board—which tells you exactly how confident Vegas is in Auburn’s chances. The Tigers’ firepower and depth give them a clear edge, but the Hornets have nothing to lose — and that can make things interesting.

Alabama State might hang around early, but Auburn’s size and talent will take over by the second half. Expect the Tigers to pull away late and cruise into the next round.