While all top seeds made it to the Sweet 16, one team that stood out above the rest is Duke. And honestly, it hasn’t even been close. The Blue Devils steamrolled through their first two March Madness matchups, outscoring Mount St. Mary’s and Baylor by a combined 67 points. Now, they roll into Thursday’s clash against Arizona riding a 13-game win streak. 

But don’t sleep on the Wildcats. Arizona is chasing something they haven’t had in a decade—a trip to the Elite Eight. They just survived a high-scoring battle against Oregon, winning 87-83 in the second round. And the fact that this isn’t the first time these two teams have met this season. Duke took care of business against Wildcats back in November, winning 69-55. But that Arizona squad was still finding itself. This one is way different. We’ll have to see how it turns out. But first, let’s have a look at…..

The injury report & starting fives

A huge sigh of relief for Duke fans, Cooper Flagg is good to go. The projected No. 1 pick had some ankle concerns heading into the tournament, but he’s been playing like nothing happened. In the first round, he posted 14 points, seven boards, four assists, and two blocks. Then, he cranked it up another notch with 18 points, nine rebounds, and six assists in Duke’s second-round blowout over Baylor. No signs of any limitations. 

Meanwhile, forward Maliq Brown’s status remains in question due to a shoulder injury suffered in the ACC Tournament. He missed the first two rounds but was seen on the sidelines without a sling. That’s a good sign, but his status is still ‘questionable.’ On the other hand, Arizona is fully healthy.

Projected Starters

Duke:

– Cooper Flagg 

– Khaman Maluach 

– Kon Knueppel 

– Tyrese Proctor 

– Sion James 

Arizona:

– Oumar Ballo 

– Keshad Johnson 

– Pelle Larsson 

– Caleb Love 

– Kylan Boswell 

Cooper Flagg & Co. vs Arizona: Breaking down the matchup

Let’s talk numbers, because they paint an interesting picture.

Duke is a statistical juggernaut. Ranked No. 1 in KenPom, they boast the best offense and the fourth-best defense in the country. They average 83.2 points per game (12th in NCAA) while holding opponents to just 61.7 (6th best). They also dominate the boards, out-rebounding opponents by nearly nine per game, and their three-point shooting is Deadly. 

Arizona, meanwhile, sits at No. 13 in KenPom, with the 12th-ranked offense and 28th-ranked defense. They score at a high clip (82.2 PPG, 18th nationally), but their defense is a bit shaky, allowing 72.5 points per game (197th nationally). 

They rebound well—averaging 36.8 boards per game —but their perimeter shooting is subpar, knocking down just 7.1 threes per game at 33.4% from deep. In a game where Duke will likely stretch the floor, that could be a problem.

But for Tommy Lloyd’s crew, their star players could be crucial. Caleb Love is their offensive engine. He’s putting up 16.8 points per game and has been clutch all season. Against Oregon, he exploded for 29 points and nine rebounds. Love also has history with Duke—averaging 15.9 points in nine career games against them.

 If Arizona wants a shot, Love has to go off. Then there’s Pelle Larsson, who adds another scoring threat. The senior guard is averaging 12 points and 3.7 assists. So, basically, if Wildcats’ backcourt can get rolling, things could get interesting. But again, it’s very well know that Blue Devils’ Cooper Flagg is the real deal. He leads the team in points (18.7), rebounds (7.5), assists (4.2), and steals (1.4). He’s done it all in this tournament, and if Arizona can’t slow him down, it’s going to be a long night.

And to make things, they got another name to keep an eye on. Tyrese Proctor. The junior guard has been on fire, averaging 12.5 points while drilling at least six threes in three straight games. So, what we can say is, both teams are armed. 

If both squads get hot, this could turn into an exciting battle.

Who’s taking this one?

Look, Duke hasn’t played a close game in weeks. Since their nail-biting win over North Carolina in the ACC semis, it’s been smooth sailing. Moreover, Blue Devils had the 60th-toughest schedule—easily the weakest among the Sweet 16 teams. The ACC was rough this year, with powerhouses like Clemson, Louisville, and UNC all falling early. Meanwhile, Arizona played the eighth-toughest schedule in the country and has been battle-tested in close games. 

The Wildcats went 6-8 in games decided by eight points or less. The Pac-12 was an absolute warzone this year, and Wildcats survived it, with seven teams from the conference making the tournament—and four still dancing.

But despite all of that, this still feels like Duke’s game. The Blue Devils are deeper, more balanced, and just flat-out better on both ends of the floor. ESPN’s BPI gives them a 74% chance to win. And while Sports Illustrated has Arizona pulling off a 75-72 upset, most experts aren’t picking against Duke. 

So…our final prediction is that Duke wins and advances to Elite 8.