If you are not hyped about the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Houston Cougars clash, then the following stat will do that job for you. It’s only the second time two top-10 KenPom teams have met in the second round of the NCAA Tournament in the last 15 years. In the first round, the No. 1 seed Houston side was able to crush No. 16 seed SIU Edwardsville 78–40. On the other hand, Gonzaga had an 89–68 victory over No. 9 seed Georgia. The match is not only a professional battle but a personal one for the coaches as well.

“Yeah, well, we’ve only been doing this for about seven or eight, eight or nine years, whatever it is. Mark has been doing this a lot longer, so don’t compare us to Gonzaga.” During the press conference, Kelvin Sampson of the Cougars made sure to give proper respect to Mark Few and his contribution to the Bulldogs.

Who will be taking the field? Injury report and starting 5

LJ Cryer is averaging 15.2 points for the Cougars. Milos Uzan is averaging 14.7 points over the last 10 games. On the other hand, Graham Ike is scoring 17.0 points per game with 7.4 rebounds and 1.4 assists for the Bulldogs. Supporting him is Khalif Battle, who is averaging 15.3 points and 1.6 steals over the last 10 games. Will these key players play?

Houston:

• L.J. Cryer
• Emanuel Sharp
• Milos Uzan
• J’Wan Roberts
• Joseph Tugler

Before coming in the March Madness, the only concern for the Houston team was forward J’Wan Roberts. The 6-foot-8 star didn’t play in the final two games of the season with an ankle injury but played in the tournament opener for 20 minutes. Apart from him, Cryer, and Uzan, the team got two more solid starters.  6-foot-3 guard Emanuel Sharp (12.5 points per game) and Joseph Tugler, who averages 5.4 points and 5.7 rebounds, come in at 6-foot-8.

Gonzaga:

• Graham Ike
• Braden Huff
• Ryan Nembhard
• Khalif Battle
• Nolan Hickman

Apart from Ike and Battle’s contribution, Braden Huff has averaged 11 points per game. Nolan Hickman, 6-foot-2 averages 11.2 points per game. And the final starter, Ryan Nembhard, 6-foot, who averages 10.6 points per game. As of now, no injury is reported for the Bulldogs. This means both the potential starting 5 have the same size as their starting 5 average height of 6-foot-4.

Houston vs Gonzaga: Preview and predictions

There is a nearly 10% drop in the Cougars’ chances of making it to the Final Four, once the cash with the Bulldogs got official. As per Evan Miyakawa, “Houston having to potentially play Gonzaga in the 2nd round is so unfair. Houston’s chances of making a Final Four are 43%. If the 8 seed in their region was Mississippi State, not Gonzaga, their probability of making a Final Four would be up at 52%.”

Since it is expected to be a close game, the prediction is not straightforward. Many are high on the Houston win, simply because of Gonzaga’s inconsistent defense. Because, defense was a problem in their losses to other great teams such as Kentucky, UConn, and Saint Mary’s. Not to forget they struggled and also had an issue against much less talented teams like Santa Clara and Oregon State.

In the last 10 games as per ESPN, Cougars: 10-0, averaging 72.1 points, 32.0 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 8.2 steals, and 4.3 blocks per game while shooting 44.9% from the field. While they have managed to successfully restrict their opponent’s average to 59.5 points per game. Bulldogs: 9-1, averaging 84.6 points, 33.4 rebounds, 20.4 assists, 7.6 steals and 2.8 blocks per game while shooting 51.0% from the field. Even they have been good defensively as their opponents have averaged 67.6 points.

Gonzaga has been to every NCAA Tournament since 1999. Maybe that leads to committee fatigue, but it should probably also lead to more respect than such a differential between the analytics and their seed. Houston is a No. 1 seed for a third consecutive season but has never played a second-round matchup like this.