The dance continues for Alabama basketball! After taking down the No. 15 seed Robert Morris in the first round, Nate Oats and Co. are gearing up for a second-round showdown. But this time, it’s not going to be a shootout against a team that lets them run wild. They’re about to run into a defensive wall named Saint Mary’s.

This is the matchup that we love to see in March’s second-round. It’s the classic contrast. A team that thrives on lighting up the scoreboard, versus another that slows the game to a crawl and forces opponents into a rock fight. Both teams had their hands full in the first round. And now, they meet on March 23 at the Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. 

Injuries, starting five & key players

Good news for Alabama fans is that Grant Nelson looks set to go again after coming up big against Robert Morris despite being a game-time decision with a knee injury. That’s a huge boost. But the Tide is still missing Houston Mallette (knees) and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (Achilles), though Wrightsell was moving well in open practice.

As for Saint Mary’s, no injury concerns. They’re coming in at full strength.

Projected Starters

Alabama Crimson Tide:

– Jarin Stevenson 

– Clifford Omoruyi 

– Labaron Philon 

– Chris Youngblood 

– Mark Sears 

Saint Mary’s Gaels:

– Paulius Murauskas 

– Luke Barrett 

– Mitchell Saxen 

– Augustas Marciulionis 

– Jordan Ross 

When we say “players to watch,” the first name that pops into our minds is Bama’s Mark Sears. Although he didn’t have his best shooting night against Robert Morris, he still dropped 22 points, 5 rebounds, and 10 assists. Then there’s Aden Holloway. The sharpshooter is averaging 2.3 made threes per game at a 41.4% clip. He could be a difference-maker.

On the other side, we have Jordan Ross. The sophomore guard was a key spark in the Gaels’ comeback win over Vanderbilt, tallying 15 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists. Then Augustas Marciulionis has been on fire over the last 10 games, averaging 15.8 points, 6.3 assists, and 1.5 steals. If Gaels’ pulls off the upset, he’ll be a major reason why.

What each team brings to the table

It’s a total night and day situation. Alabama plays at the fastest pace in the country (per KenPom), while Saint Mary’s ranks 360th out of 364 teams in adjusted tempo. Alabama is looking to turn this into a track meet; Saint Mary’s wants a chess match. We already know that the Crimson Tide is a high-powered offensive machine, averaging 91.1 points per game.

Although it somehow didn’t work out in SEC tournament, they feast on offensive rebounds (10.8 per game, 4th in the SEC) and have elite ball movement, as seen in their tournament-record 25 assists last game. Meanwhile, Gaels is about defense, defense, and some more defense. They allow just 60.7 points per game (5th in the nation) and hold opponents to 40% shooting.

Their size is also a factor, with six players over 6’8”, including 7’1” big men Harry Wessels and Andrew McKeever. And Bama is used to having the height advantage, thanks to Jarin Stevenson, Grant Nelson, and Clifford Omoruyi (all 6’11”), plus 7-footer Aiden Sherrell. But this time, they might have met their match in the paint.

Prediction: Who takes it?

So, who’s got the edge? Well, according to ESPN, Alabama has a 69.7% chance to take this one, leaving Saint Mary’s with just a 30.3% shot at pulling off the upset.

You might be wondering why Alabama is the favorite when both teams excel at different ends of the court. Mainly because, if a struggling SEC team like Vanderbilt was able to give Saint Mary’s a scare just recently in the First Round, what happens when they face Alabama’s firepower? The Gaels barely survived round one (59-56), and now they’re up against an even tougher opponent. 

Plus, Bama’s aggressive style could force Saint Mary’s into foul trouble, which is a major issue given the Gaels’ limited bench depth. On the other hand, if Crimson Tide underestimates Saint Mary’s—especially after struggling against size-heavy teams like Auburn and Ole Miss—the Gaels could absolutely grind them down. 

But if Sears and Philon can orchestrate another masterclass in ball movement, Alabama should break through that brick wall defense. The final call is…expect a hard-fought game, but Alabama’s tempo and depth should be too much for Saint Mary’s to handle. 

Prediction: Crimson Tide moves on.