We’ve got a Midwest Region showdown on deck. The 3-seed Kentucky Wildcats will square off against 14-seed Troy Trojans in the first round of March Madness. UK is coming off a fantastic debut regular season under head coach Mark Pope. He inherited a roster hit by injuries but still managed a No. 3 seed after a tough SEC campaign that included wins over eight top-15 teams, per ESPN stats. Also, not to forget that with eight national titles and a fan base that bleeds blue, the Wildcats are no strangers to the Big Dance. 

Troy (23-10), meanwhile, secured their NCAA berth (for the first time since 2017) by winning the Sun Belt Tournament. Under head coach Scott Cross, Troy’s resilience was crystal clear in a 79-60 rout of James Madison in the Sun Belt semifinals. “I do believe our guys are confident and believe in themselves and they believe in each other,” Cross said yesterday- a sentiment that many hope will echo against Kentucky.

Projected lineups and players to watch

Well, first things first—injuries. Kentucky will be missing Jaxson Robinson and Kerr Kriisa, while Troy is entering the matchup with a fully healthy squad. That’s already a plus for the Trojans.

Projected Lineups:

Kentucky Wildcats:

– Lamont Butler  

– Otega Oweh  

– Koby Brea  

– Andrew Carr  

– Amari Williams  

Troy Trojans:

– Myles Rigsby 

– Thomas Dowd 

– Jackson Fields 

– Tayton Conerway 

– Marcus Rigsby Jr. 

Now, for Kentucky, Koby Brea will be the one to watch whose perimeter prowess is the team’s X-factor. He has been lights out from three, knocking down 2.6 triples per game. Brea’s been averaging 11.5 points and 3.2 rebounds per game, shooting 46.6% from the field and 43.9% from three. Guard Lamont Butler, back from a shoulder injury, adds defensive bite and playmaking. Otega Oweh, meanwhile, has been their top scorer, averaging 16.2 points per game along with 1.6 steals over the last 10 games.

On Troy’s side, Thomas Dowd is their top three-point threat, though he’s shooting a modest 30.7% from deep while averaging 9.9 points. But the real engine of the Trojans is Tayton Conerway, who’s been stuffing the stat sheet with 17.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game in his last 10 outings.

Kentucky vs Troy: How’s the game looking?

Kentucky fans are just hoping one thing: history doesn’t repeat itself. Remember last year? UK was a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament and got bounced in the first round by 14-seed Oakland. They definitely don’t want a déjà vu moment this time around.

As for the match-up, it is going to be a game of offense vs. defense. Kentucky boasts one of the most potent offenses in the country, averaging a whopping 85.3 points per game. They love to push the pace, get out in transition, and launch threes. But here’s the problem. It’s defense. The Wildcats have struggled all season to protect the paint and force turnovers. That could be an opening for Troy, a team that thrives on attacking the rim and crashing the offensive boards.

The good news for Kentucky is Lamont Butler is back. The experienced guard brings much-needed stability to the Wildcats’ backcourt. And if Koby Brea stays hot from deep, Kentucky’s offense should be tough to slow down. On the other hand, Troy has been a solid defensive squad, holding opponents to just 65.4 points per game while boasting a +5.6 rebounding margin. However, their Achilles’ heel is three-point shooting. 

They’re knocking down just 29.9% from beyond the arc, which could make it tough to keep up with Kentucky if the Wildcats start hitting their shots.

What do the predictions say?

– BPI Predicted Winner: Kentucky  

– BPI Predicted Point Differential: 13.0  

– KenPom Predicted Final Score: Kentucky 82, Troy 70  

– KenPom Win Probability (Kentucky): 86%  

ESPN’s BPI model is feeling really good about Kentucky, projecting them to roll past Troy with a 13-point win. KenPom also predicts a comfortable Wildcats victory by 12 points.

And honestly, looking at Troy’s track record against top-tier competition, it’s hard to argue. The Trojans tried to challenge themselves in nonconference play, but it didn’t exactly go well. They lost by 16 to Arkansas, 21 to Oregon, and 20 to Houston. And Kentucky is better than both Arkansas and Oregon, despite that frustrating home loss to the Razorbacks men earlier this season.

And there’s no doubt that Troy’s defense is legit. If they can dominate the glass and force Kentucky into a cold-shooting night, they might make this interesting. But unless the Trojans suddenly turn into an elite three-point shooting team overnight, Kentucky Wildcats’ firepower should be too much to handle.

With odds in their favor and Mark Pope leading the way, the Wildcats are looking to make a deep March run. Let’s see if they can flip the script from last year and avoid another early exit.