Basketball, like life, is a game of momentum. One minute, you’re cruising with a fast break; the next, you’re staring at an 11-point deficit, scrambling to recover. For the North Carolina Tar Heels, a season that began with sky-high expectations is teetering on the edge of collapse, leaving fans and analysts questioning if head coach Hubert Davis can prevent this from becoming a full-blown disaster.

According to Tim Donnelly on a recent episode of the 99.9 The Fan podcast, UNC’s current trajectory mirrors that of NC State football earlier this year. “UNC was a top-10 team in the country coming into the year with a returning ACC Player of the Year and some big-time recruits,” Donnelly observed. He noted that NC State, much like UNC now, began their season with lofty goals but had to pivot to salvage their year. “It’s time to throw out what you thought this season was going to be and pivot from, ‘Let’s go chase these lofty goals,’ to, ‘Let’s prevent disaster.’”

Wednesday night’s 83-70 loss to Louisville underscored UNC’s struggles. The Tar Heels’ defense faltered late, allowing Chucky Hepburn to score 13 of his 26 points in the final nine minutes. Hepburn’s flawless free-throw shooting—7-for-7 in the last three minutes—sealed the Cardinals’ victory, showcasing the kind of poise UNC desperately needs. Despite Ian Jackson’s 23-point performance and contributions from Drake Powell and RJ Davis, the Tar Heels fell apart during crunch time, committing turnovers and failing to convert key opportunities.

UNC ranks 46th in NCAA Men’s Basketball NET Rankings, a stat that reveals their fall from preseason grace. At 9-6 overall and 2-1 in conference play, their record reflects inconsistency rather than dominance. Louisville exposed UNC’s vulnerabilities, particularly its inability to capitalize on momentum swings and execute in high-pressure situations.

The Tarheels fall from preseason glory has left them scrambling for answers. With RJ Davis struggling to carry the load and rising stars like Drake Powell and Ian Jackson offering hope—but no guarantees of staying beyond this season—the question looms: Is it time for a changing of the guard?

Hubert Davis and the Tar Heels: A season on the brink, searching for a comeback

The parallels with NC State football extend beyond the record. Donnelly’s analysis highlighted the need for UNC to recalibrate its goals and focus on building for the future. “You hate to say it because RJ Davis is a legend,” he said, “but there has to be a changing of the guard. UNC needs to turn the keys over to young players who you hope will be back next year.” Yet, in college basketball, retaining talent is no guarantee, as top players like Drake Powell and Ian Jackson often jump to the NBA after one season.

The Tar Heels’ defensive rebounding—giving up 10 offensive boards to Louisville—and their inability to close games remain pressing concerns. As one observer pointed out, “This team’s largest lead was just one point. How can you win consistently when you’re always playing catch-up?”

Hubert Davis faces mounting pressure to stabilize the ship. With an ACC schedule that only gets tougher, UNC cannot afford more nights like the one against Louisville. The metaphorical shot clock is ticking, and Davis must find a way to rally his team before the season slips away entirely. As Donnelly put it, “At least [NC State football’s struggles] weren’t a full-blown disaster. UNC must aim for the same.”

That said UNC’s narrow 74-73 win over a struggling Notre Dame team today offered a glimmer of hope but also exposed lingering flaws.

For a program steeped in tradition, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The Tar Heels’ season might not end with a championship banner, but it doesn’t have to be a cautionary tale. The road ahead is steep, but as any basketball fan knows, comebacks are what make the game great. The question is, can Hubert Davis orchestrate one?