Last year, Paige Bueckers walked on Senior Day, but her journey with UConn wasn’t over just yet. She had a dream left unfinished—a National Championship title. That was her goal, her ultimate mission. So, she made the decision to return, and she did so with dominance. Now, leading UConn as the No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament’s Spokane 4 region, Bueckers is proving why she’s one of the best. But throughout this journey, another storyline has been brewing—the anticipation of her officially declaring for the WNBA Draft.

While Bueckers has never publicly stated her intentions, the consensus has been clear: if she enters the draft, the Dallas Wings are expected to take her with the No. 1 overall pick in 2025. Yet, here’s the shocker—it might not happen.

At the heart of this uncertainty is the WNBA’s ongoing CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) negotiations. The current deal, set to expire at the end of the 2025 season, was signed back in 2020, when the league’s media rights were valued between $25-35 million. Fast forward to today, and those numbers are projected to multiply nearly eightfold. With revenue about to skyrocket, WNBA players are fighting for their fair share.

However, the league’s ownership structure complicates negotiations. WNBA team owners hold about 42% of their franchises, but the NBA controls another 42%, while independent investors own the remaining 16%. When expansion teams enter the league, WNBA owners will see their stakes diluted—but the NBA and other investors won’t. This internal battle for power could stall the negotiations, potentially leading to a work stoppage if an agreement isn’t reached by early 2026.

And that’s where Paige Bueckers finds herself at a crossroads. While she’s projected as the No. 1 pick, that doesn’t mean she’s automatically committing to the WNBA in 2025—or to Dallas at all. Unlike most top college players, Bueckers has the luxury of time.

Even if Dallas selects her, the Wings will hold her draft rights for a full year, meaning she has significant leverage in deciding her next move. Instead of rushing into the WNBA, she could take an alternative path—one that gives her greater control over her career.

One option? Skipping the WNBA in 2025 altogether. By doing so, Bueckers could secure a lucrative seven-figure deal overseas, particularly in Turkey’s top women’s league. This move would allow her to continue developing her game while waiting to see how the WNBA’s labor negotiations unfold.

Another possibility is Unrivaled—the new women’s basketball league co-founded by Napheesa Collier and Breanna Stewart. If a WNBA lockout looms, Bueckers could make her professional debut in Unrivaled, giving the league a major boost while maintaining control over her career.

Beyond basketball, she could explore media, brand partnerships, and content creation. With NIL deals proving that elite women’s players can make serious money outside of the WNBA, Bueckers could leverage her popularity to maximize her earnings—without locking herself into a rookie-scale WNBA contract that would pay her just $78,831 in her first season. But this isn’t just about money. It’s about setting a precedent.

Paige Bueckers holds the power—and the WNBA knows it

If Bueckers bypasses Dallas or delays her WNBA debut, it could open the door for other top prospects—like USC’s JuJu Watkins—to take control of their own careers instead of settling for the league’s restrictive rookie contracts. It could also strengthen the WNBPA’s bargaining position in the CBA talks, applying pressure on league executives to improve rookie pay and overall player compensation.

Imagine this: You’re a WNBA player watching your league’s media rights deals skyrocket from $25 million to $35 million under the last CBA, and now, with a new deal on the horizon, that number is expected to be nearly eight times higher. Media rights are the biggest revenue stream in any league, and in this case, the growth is undeniable.

For starters, the WNBA’s financial structure is murky. Unlike most leagues where individual team owners hold the majority stake, WNBA owners only control about 42% of their own teams. The NBA owns another 42%, and the remaining 16% belongs to a group of investors who bought in for just $75 million back in 2022—a deal that now looks like a steal.

And things are about to get even more complicated. With expansion teams set to join the league, those original WNBA owners will see their stakes diluted, while the NBA and those early investors won’t be affected in the same way.

Last time around, max salaries doubled, but the salary cap only increased by about 30%, which meant that mid-tier players—who make up the bulk of the league—got squeezed. Meanwhile, rookie salaries remain in the five-figure range, making it harder to attract top young talent. The league’s draft system, which the NWSL has already moved away from, also limits financial flexibility for incoming stars.

So yes, the WNBA players have every reason to fight for a better deal. And Bueckers, by not committing, can lead the fight. Even UConn head coach Geno Auriemma has hinted at the financial benefits of waiting. Speaking about Bueckers’ teammate, Azzi Fudd—who is also expected to commit to the WNBA—Auriemma stated, “Besides, if she stays one more year, she’ll make more money next year when she goes into the draft.”

According to Auriemma, it’s all about timing. If the new CBA is set to reshape the WNBA’s financial landscape with better contracts and bigger paydays, then maybe, just maybe, Bueckers should follow that advice, too. So, what will she do? The ball is in her court.