With 2025 on the horizon, basketball teams are looking for a fresh start and gearing up to make improvements as they kick off the second half of the season. For Iowa State, their 10-1 record and No. 8 ranking look impressive, but they’ve had a bit of a “cupcake schedule” so far. Their non-conference games were a stroll through easy competition, and while the Cyclones have shown they can dominate, their real test lies ahead. Like a team riding a big lead into the final quarter, Iowa State’s Big 12 fortunes may hinge on how they handle the tougher matchups coming their way.

In a special New Year’s edition of the Field of 68: After Dark podcast, analysts John Fanta, Jeff Goodman, and John Henson weighed in on Iowa State’s potential for success in 2024. Goodman, known for his unfiltered takes, wasted no time getting to the point. “Number one, no more cupcakes, TJ,” he said, addressing Iowa State head coach T.J. Otzelberger. “No more fattening up on cupcakes. Let’s be done with this non-conference schedule. You just signed another extension. You are filthy rich at this point. You have the ultimate job security. Everybody loves you.”

It was a playful jab, but Goodman’s message was clear: Iowa State needs to face tougher competition in the non-conference slate moving forward. He continued, “I mean, calling you the wizard of odds. Like no more crappy non-conference schedule where you can fill up on cupcakes. First of all, you don’t need the cupcakes because if you keep eating them, you’re not going to fit in those shmedium shirts that you wear, okay? So it’s twofold here. No more cupcakes, no more shmedium shirts.”

Though Goodman’s humor was in full swing, he made an important point about Iowa State’s strength of schedule. The Cyclones have been impressive, but the bulk of their wins have come against teams ranked in the lower 300s in the NCAA. Of the 11 teams they’ve faced, only Auburn and Marquette are ranked in the top 25 of the AP Poll.

While Iowa State’s record is impressive, the real question is: How will they fare when the competition gets tougher? The non-conference games may have been a warm-up, but the Big 12 grind is a whole different ball game.

Iowa State’s non-conference cushion: Can they keep momentum against tougher big 12 competition?

In their toughest tests, the Cyclones suffered their only loss to Auburn in a narrow 83-81 defeat, while they managed to beat Marquette 81-70. Both games were competitive, but the reality is that Iowa State’s non-conference schedule hasn’t fully prepared them for the high-caliber competition they’ll face in the Big 12.

Despite the schedule concerns, Goodman also acknowledged Iowa State’s tremendous upside. “He’s done an incredible job,” Goodman said of Otzelberger. “I think this is the most balanced team that he’s had. You still have the culture, the toughness, the defense, all of that. And you have an upgraded offensive team with some of their off-season additions, including Joshua Jefferson, the St. Mary’s transfer. So I think this team still is under the radar.”

Indeed, the Cyclones are more than just a product of a weak schedule. Their 10-1 start and No. 3 ranking in the AP Poll reflect a team with significant talent. Iowa State leads the Big 12, with a scoring margin of 22 points per game—ranking 6th in the nation. They also boast the 30th-best three-point shooting percentage (38.65%) and the 5th-best scoring offense, averaging 88.5 points per game. This offensive firepower, combined with their relentless defense, gives them a potent mix that could make them a contender in the Big 12.

But for Iowa State, the test is clear: continue to build on their impressive early-season performance, while ensuring their non-conference games don’t hold them back. As Goodman noted, the road ahead is all about finding the right balance—facing tougher opponents to sharpen their skills while maintaining the strong play that’s made them a standout team so far. If they can stay on course, Iowa State has the potential to not only dominate the Big 12 but also make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. However, that momentum could easily slip away if they don’t take the lessons learned from their non-conference schedule to heart.