This season has been a wild ride for the Arkansas Razorbacks and John Calipari. If you’ve been following along, you know exactly what I’m talking about. It has been a rollercoaster ride filled with thrilling wins and frustrating losses. With a dreadful start in SEC play, the Razorbacks have been able to rack up consecutive wins against strong teams, Kentucky and Texas, elevating the morale of the team as well as their ranking amongst college basketball analysts.

According to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology update, John Calipari’s team is now right on the bubble. Lunardi isn’t ready to write them off completely. As he puts it, “You say Arkansas is far from an NCAA team. I think they’re a lot closer than that. I have them as the first team out.” 

Looking ahead, Arkansas’ path to the tournament depends on a few critical games, especially the one against Alabama. Lunardi points out just how much a win here could impact their chances. “Now, if they were to win tonight against Alabama, it would seemingly help their case, pending results elsewhere”. A victory over Alabama would help make the team’s tournament resume stronger and give the team some much-needed momentum heading into the end of the regular season.

But Arkansas’ chances don’t rest solely on their own performance. Lunardi also notes, “They wouldn’t necessarily bump a fellow SEC rival at least not immediately, but there are vulnerable teams as well. Georgia is vulnerable, Vanderbilt is vulnerable, and to a lesser extent, maybe Oklahoma.” The Razorbacks could certainly capitalize on these weaknesses. 

Interestingly, the overall strength of the SEC this season could actually help Arkansas. With the Razorbacks still working to lock in a spot, the conference as a whole could give them a boost. Lunardi sees the SEC sending more teams to the NCAA Tournament than originally expected: “But at the end of the day, I would put the over for SEC teams in the tournament. Whatever the line is.” With several SEC teams performing well this year, Arkansas has a better shot of sneaking in—especially if the SEC manages to send more teams than anticipated.

Challenges and opportunities ahead for John Calipari

Arkansas now has some serious opportunities, especially with seven Quad 1 games left in their final 9 contests. Games against top-tier competition are crucial in order to boost their NCAA Tournament resume. Every game for them becomes that much more important if they are to increase their chances of getting into the tournament.

One thing John Calipari’s team has going for them is the fact that four of these Quad 1 games will be played at home. That’s a big deal. Playing in Bud Walton Arena, especially with the energy of the home crowd, could make all the difference. 

The good news for John Calipari is that their remaining schedule features a balanced mix of home and away games against some tough opponents. No bad losses on their record, they’ve already beaten Michigan and Kentucky with big wins. So their case for an NCAA Tournament bid is looking good. If they can get at least four wins in these Quad 1 games and do well in the SEC Tournament, they could very well end up on the right side of the bubble.

And while Arkansas’ road to the NCAA Tournament by no means is a sure thing, there is a growing feeling of optimism in the air for the Hogs. The Razorbacks have been through the storm. And they do in fact have a real shot at going to March Madness. A few key wins in next few games could see them contesting for a title in a weeks time. The light at the end of the tunnel is shining bit brighter for the Arkansas fans, as the dream of March Madness is still alive.