It was UNC vs Duke in the ACC tournament semifinals- a clash in one of college basketball’s fiercest rivalries. The most dominant team in the country – the Blue Devils – was playing without their superstar, Cooper Flagg, a 6’9″ freshman phenom averaging 20.5 points and 9.2 rebounds, sidelined by a minor ankle tweak. But even that stroke of good fortune wasn’t enough to get it done for UNC, and now their position looks precarious getting in to March Madness. Beating Duke would have made a huge difference, but as things stand, it looks like they probably won’t make it.

Recent bracketology projections from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi have UNC as the first team out. Developments in other conference tournaments, including in the Mountain West, where Boise State upset San Diego State in the semifinals, have made UNC’s position even more uncertain. Interestingly, commentator Dick Vitale’s ‘eye test’ makes him feel like the Tar Heels could have what it takes to be included in March Madness.

However, he also notes that their abysmal Quad 1 record of 1-12 is UNC’s biggest issue. “I love North Carolina, but their record (1-12) in Quad 1 games says it all, baby!” Vitale said in a tweet. “They had to win more of those games.” Vitale’s insight shows us how much UNC needs to win the marquee matchups, something the program just hasn’t been able to do. With that being said, simply put, UNC didn’t do enough when it mattered the most.

Even so, the Quad 1 record cannot be overlooked. It’s one of the biggest factors the committee considers in determining the NCAA tournament bracket. Quad 1 wins amount to beating a top-30 team at home, a top-50 team at a neutral site, and a top-75 team on the road. Teams such as Auburn and Kansas stack them up to secure top seeds, while UNC’s 1-12 record leaves work to do. Beyond stats, their late-season form has faltered—since February, they’ve lost four games by single digits, including the Duke semifinal, hampered by shaky execution and a sprained wrist for guard RJ Davis. “We’re right there, but we’ve got to finish,” Coach Hubert Davis said. The NCAA selection committee considers Quad 1 records along NET rankings and strength of schedule.

UNC’s NCAA tournament hopes hang by a thread

The bright side to all of this. ESPN’s projections machine still gives North Carolina a 59% chance to make the Big Dance. And if the selection committee slates four ACC squads to the tournament, the Tar Heels can make the case they should be the one. They’ve, get this, notched a 2-1 record against SMU and Wake Forest, the other candidates for the fourth ACC bid.

For what it’s worth, 11 of UNC’s 13 losses have come against top-50 opponents, including four top-five teams: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, and Florida. Their NET ranking of 35 is also better than a lot of other bubble teams.

And for those wondering how a team with one Quad 1 win could get in the tournament, teams with one Quad 1 win have gotten in since the NET began in 2018-19. Nevada (2019), Syracuse (2021) and NC State (2023) are examples, but none of those teams had double-digit Quad 1 losses. The worst of the bunch, Syracuse, had seven. UNC has 12 — that’s a significant mark against it.

So, will the Tar Heels sneak into the Big Dance? The answer is not favorable. Their résumé has too many holes, and unless the selection committee makes North Carolina an outlier and ignores its terrible Quad 1 record, it is in trouble. It would need some chaos to breakout elsewhere in other conference tournaments to open its own door. Otherwise, even Vitale’s impassioned plea won’t be enough to help.