Riding high after winning the ACC title with a 28-3 record, Duke secured the top spot in the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2021. A lot is working in the Blue Devils’ favor at the moment: a top-notch regular season, star players like Cooper Flagg, and confidence entering the ACC Tournament. But there’s a catch: The path to the title isn’t as clear-cut as it might appear. But with the Madness of March, you never know, and Duke’s route to winning it all might just be harder than expected.

Historically, the No. 1 seed hasn’t always prevailed in the ACC Tournament. The last time a No. 1 seed claimed the title was Virginia in 2018. And the tournament has been full of surprises since, with plenty of upsets to spoil the plans of the big teams. And with the madness of March Calling, anything can happen. Of course, Duke is the favorite, but let’s keep in mind that surprises are one of the things that makes this time of year so great.

Rob Dauster remarked as much in an episode of Field of 68: After Dark. When debating what team, if any, could upset Duke, Dauster said, “Someone’s going to have to beat Duke; like, Duke has to lose for there to be a bid stealer. It’s got to happen.” Dauster’s comment is proof enough that Duke is not invincible, as great as they may be. So, who will take them down?

Dauster wasn’t done there. He also spoke about Georgia Tech that could just have the ingredients to make things interesting. “With their guard play and the size that they have, I think the thing that Duke does is, because of their size, if you can’t match up with them physically, they are going to overwhelm you. I think that Georgia Tech, as much as anyone, has guards that can match up with them physically.” Georgia Tech may not be the same caliber of team as Duke, but they have the physicality and play to give the Cooper Flagg’s Blue Devils a run for their money.

So, let’s be frank: Georgia Tech’s chances of pulling a giant-killing upset are very slim. Duke has been on a roll all season and it’s hard to see them slip up. But that’s the magic of March, isn’t it? It’s the upsets, the giant-killings, the “Hey, anything can happen” moments. The Yellow Jackets have some good players, like Lance Terry, that could step up and give Duke a problem or two. But Georgia Tech will need a lot to get there. If there is a “bid stealer” going to come out of the ACC Tournament, it’ll need a massive effort to take Duke down.

Can Cooper Flagg and Co. maintain their top spot?

But there’s a reason Duke is a favorite in the first place. The Blue Devils are not just the cream of the crop in the ACC, they’re one of the best teams in America in what could stand as a historically great season. Duke is currently ranked number 1 in several major rankings, including KenPom and T-Rank. The program’s +39.66 adjusted efficiency margin thus far on KenPom is behind only the 2015 Kentucky team on a list of the best in the database since 1997. On T-Rank, Duke’s projected chance of beating an average Division I team stands at an absurd 98.14 percent, the best in the nation this season, and the ninth-best of the shot clock era.

And really, Duke’s strength isn’t only about their stats. The reason for their dominance in the AP Poll is partly because of their consistency and well-rounded play, which has allowed them to remain near the top of college basketball. But for all its hype, Duke’s non-conference schedule wasn’t that challenging compared to the other top teams in the country. They haven’t seen as many top-ranked AP Top 25 teams outside of the conference, which raises some questions about how they’ll handle the tougher competition in the tournament.

So, can someone come up and upset and knock off Cooper Flagg and Co. in the ACC Tournament? According to Rob Dauster, it is absolutely possible. He’s right when he says, “Duke has to lose for there to be a bid stealer,” and for that to happen someone is going to have to come up huge. With teams like Georgia Tech prepared to give them a run, anything is possible. But one thing is certain: With Cooper Flagg on its roster, Duke will be a very tough out. The ACC Tournament promises plenty of twists and turns, and for whatever it’s worth, it should prove to be a fun ride regardless of how it all breaks down.