When the field of 68 saw 9 of its teams belonging to ACC in 2018, it was a picture far from the ruins the conference was to see in the years that followed. They were the only ones without a losing record in the tourney since 1987, legendary coaches graced the sidelines, and there were 47 NCAA tournament wins among them in just the prior three seasons. It was a picture of the conference known to script history. But come 2024-25 March Madness, Steve Forbes’ “We’re not the ACC of old,” rings true yet again, and Duke is left to stare harsh reality in the face.

ACC entered the season with a mere 4 coaches left from the 2019 season that last saw the conference at its heights. Now there was none with a national title and only one with a Final Four appearance. The decline was evident when only 4 of its 15 teams secured a seed for the Big Dance. Even bitter? 2 exited in the Round 1. To lower-seeded teams at that. Louisville. Clemson. ACC’s top teams have been sent packing. If that suggests anything for the top-ranked Duke, their environment might just not have been competitive enough. And well, also that they now shoulder a massive weight of the conference. The first challenge in place? No. 16-seed Mount St. Mary’s.

The Mountaineers boasting 23-12 will take on the top-seeded Blue Devils at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina. Led by first-year head coach Donny Lind, the program has a rich history. Jim Phelan, who coached the team for nearly 50 years, stacked up an incredible 830 career wins. But when it comes to March Madness? They’ve struggled to make a deep run.

Mount St. Mary’s last NCAA Tournament appearance ended in a First Four loss to Texas Southern in 2021. While they’ve managed to win Opening Round games in 2008 (Coppin State) and 2017 (New Orleans), they’ve never advanced past the first round. And as a No. 16 seed? They’re 0-4 all-time, losing by an average of 32 points per game.

This year, however, they come in with momentum.

The Mountaineers took down American, 83-72, in the First Four. They weren’t even supposed to win, coming in as a 3-point underdog. But Dola Adebayo and Jedy Cordilia dominated, each scoring 22 points, while Dallas Hobbs knocked down four three-pointers on his way to 17 points. On the other side, Duke is entering the tournament as the ACC champions. But there’s one major question mark: Cooper Flagg.

The ACC Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year suffered a severe ankle sprain in the ACC Tournament opener against Georgia Tech on March 13. He had to be helped off the court in a wheelchair and missed the rest of the tournament. The good news? Reports say he’s pain-free and expected to play. But the reality? His minutes could be limited. If Duke jumps out to a big lead, they might rest him to keep him fresh for later rounds. And then there’s the history.

The last time Duke played in the NCAA Tournament at Lenovo Center (back when it was called PNC Arena), they suffered one of the biggest upsets in program history—a 78-71 loss to No. 14-seed Mercer in 2014. That night, Quinn Cook did everything he could, scoring 23 points on 7-of-10 three-point shooting. But in the end, it wasn’t enough to save the Blue Devils from an early exit. Moreover, analysts have also raised concerns about Duke not facing the big guns enough this season.

Virginia, Notre Dame, Syracuse, NC State– none have lost lesser than 15 games. Their usual top-10 matchup rival, UNC, did not even find themselves anywhere close to the rank. More to the problem? Only two of the 15 teams, excluding Duke, made AP Poll and the Blue Devils lost to one of them– Clemson 77-71. Now with so much uncertainty surrounding Duke’s opener, fans wasted no time speaking their doubtful minds.

Fans buzz: will Duke survive the madness or become the next tournament casualty?

Concern has replaced excitement for Duke this March Madness. Their favorites are falling, one by one, despite having the talent to go far. “Duke not making the Final Four. Not saying they lose tomorrow, but it’s not out of the question,” one spectator wrote.

Well, chaos unfolded on Day 1 of the tournament. First, there was Louisville. A No. 8 seed, ranked 10 on AP Poll, was finally back in the NCAA Tournament after a six-year drought. But all the expectations were shattered the moment Louisville entered court. “ACC should have been a 1-bid league,” another user chimed in, taking a dig at the conference. The ninth-seeded Bluejays didn’t just pull off an 89-75 upset—they ran Louisville off the court in a dominant first-round beatdown. And, before fans could even process that loss, another shocker followed—McNeese vs. Clemson.

A No. 12 seed taking down a No. 5 isn’t unheard of, but McNeese came into this matchup red-hot, riding an 11-game win streak. From the start, it was clear they had no fear of the heavily favored Tigers and accordingly, pulled off a dramatic 67-69 victory in a nail-biter, making history by advancing to the second round for the first time ever. Well, that’s a blow to the ACC as a whole and fans aren’t shying away from expressing.

“Yeah, the ACC is crap… We’ve all known though,” another fan added.

With those two major upsets in mind, it’s easy to see why fans are on edge. But, Duke’s position is quite concerning too. Especially with Cooper Flagg’s status.

“Duke ain’t going to the Final Four without 100% healthy and in condition Flagg,” one fan pointed out. No doubt, Flagg is crucial for Duke. He’s on pace to be the first freshman in Division I history to lead his team in every major statistical category: points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. He’s already shattered records—becoming the youngest player in NCAA history with multiple 20-point double-doubles and dropping 42 points on Notre Dame in January, an ACC freshman record.

“Duke ain’t winning it all,” another user bluntly put it. With Flagg sidelined, the supporting cast had to step up—and they did. Kon Knueppel emerged as an unexpected leader, dropping 17 points against North Carolina and earning ACC Tournament MVP honors. But odds aren’t all in favor of the Blue Devils and they need their best to put fans’ distress to rest. Will Duke live up?