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On NCAA.org, there are certain myths that the organisation has tried to debunk. Their final thought is that while many of the myths surrounding Selection Sunday have persisted over the years, the reality is that the committees follow a thorough, structured process that prioritizes fairness and balance. However, fans have often sounded off, and the recent selection brings what they cited as “Myth No. 8” into the conversation again. And at the center is North Carolina.

The myth is that Late-season performance is the most important factor. As per the website, though, the reality is that “the committee evaluates a team’s entire body of work. While late-season success can help a team’s resume, early-season games are important, too.”

If we’re talking about UNC’s performance in the final stretch of the season, the Tar Heels look every bit like a tournament-worthy team. They won seven of their last ten games, building momentum at the right time. But if we zoom out and look at their full-season resume, well, things start to get dicey. In layman’s terms, when faced with elite competition, the Tar Heels folded like a cheap lawn chair in a hurricane. Yet, when the bracket was unveiled, UNC found itself among the First Four teams, set to face San Diego State in Dayton. This was certainly a moment of celebration for UNC, but many weren’t expecting the Tar Heels to dance!

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As a result, many saw this as a blatant disregard for metrics that typically determine a team’s worthiness. Enter Brendan Marks, who tried to dissect the chaos with nuance and made a compelling case in favor of UNC head coach Hubert Davis—an argument that shifts the focus from just the numbers to something deeper. Some might still have a bone to pick because, if you remember, what Marks said goes directly against the “reality” the NCAA had been trying to put forward.

“Let’s be clear about UNC: If you’re judging by the best teams in the country right now, the Tar Heels are clearly worthy of inclusion. If the committee still factored in ‘Last 10 games,’ would’ve been a no-brainer. But getting in with only one win over the field is still wild,” penned Brendan Marks, The Athletic sportswriter.

 

Marks is basically saying that if the process prioritized identifying the best teams right now, the Tar Heels would be a clear choice. Going for just that, he does have a point! Over their last 10 games, UNC went 8-2, proving they’re hitting their stride at the right time. On top of that, they ranked in the top 15 on BartTorvik during this stretch, a metric that highlights statistical dominance in recent games.

Their only loss in the past month came against the No. 1 team in the country. That’s a big reason why UNC leads six of the seven key NCAA selection metrics, giving them a stronger case than several teams left out. Unlike other bubble teams with multiple bad losses, UNC had just one unexpected defeat (Stanford, NET No. 81), meaning they handled business against weaker opponents—something the committee values.

Furthermore, the Tar Heels faced a daunting gauntlet of 10 top-25 KenPom teams, including three elite programs in Duke, Auburn, and Florida. UNC’s late-season surge, capped by an 8-2 record in their final 10 games, reinforced their tournament credentials and proved they could hang with the nation’s best. But that exactly brings everyone to the paradox of the situation and is also probably why the comment sections are filled with disbelief.

The fans’ outrage: UNC and Hubert Davis’ big dance, a blatant snub of the process?

As fiery as the spectators were, they immediately flooded the comment section. “Maybe the worst team ever to get an at-large bid,” penned a spectator. And honestly, they weren’t wrong, either. UNC finished the regular season with a 22-13 record and a respectable 13-7 mark in the ACC, good for fourth in the conference. But then there’s that glaring issue: their record in Quadrant 1 (Q1) games. 1-12. Yes, you read that correctly. One. And. Twelve.

Adding fuel to the fire, the Tar Heels had just two wins against teams that made the NCAA tournament: UCLA and American. That placed them at a staggering 2-10 against squads set to compete in March Madness. “North Carolina getting in is laughable. 1-12 in Quad 1. Joke,” another user chimed in. As if that wasn’t enough, UNC also had a dismal 0-5 record against ACC teams that made the NCAA tournament and stood at just 2-7 against ACC teams with winning records.

But here’s the kicker—UNC had the perfect opportunity to silence the doubters. A conference tournament semifinal against Duke, who was missing their key player, Cooper Flagg? That should’ve been a golden ticket. Instead, rather than capitalizing, UNC fell short. Again.

“Duke fans seeing UNC make the field,” one user wrote, pairing the comment with a GIF of someone sobbing uncontrollably. And honestly, it made sense. The Tar Heels had everything working in their favor. In their previous game against Georgia Tech, Flagg, Duke’s freshman sensation, sprained his left ankle in the first half, hobbled off the court, and never returned.

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The last two times Flagg faced UNC, he had dominated—dropping 21 and 15 points, respectively, and sealing the second win with a last-minute dunk. He was also relentless on the boards, snatching 8 and 9 rebounds in those matchups. And with defensive anchor Maliq Brown also unavailable, the path was wide open for the Tar Heels to take advantage.

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But instead of UNC running the show, Duke—without its generational talent—thrived. Lubin played his part, leading UNC with 20 points, but when the final buzzer sounded, the scoreboard told a different story: Duke 74, UNC 71. And what’s worse? At one point, the Tar Heels had trailed by 24 points. That’s why Duke fans were probably shedding tears of laughter rather than sorrow, as one user pointed out.

And that makes the comment, “North Carolina getting in the tournament is absolute bullshit. Completely undermines the so-called ‘process,'” even harder to argue against. The numbers don’t lie—UNC was 0-8 against teams ranked in the top 20 of the NET and 1-10 against teams in the top 40. The average NET ranking of their 22 wins? A pedestrian 134.9, highlighting the lack of marquee victories. Even worse is that six of UNC’s Quad 1 losses were by double digits, with an average margin of defeat of 9.3 points.

“North Carolina being in is a JOKE,” another user vented. And if you look at their resume, it’s tough to refute. The Tar Heels barely scraped by against lower-ranked teams, securing one-possession wins over Pitt (No. 62), Notre Dame (No. 103), and NC State (No. 132). They even needed overtime to edge out Boston College (No. 204). Meanwhile, when faced with true tests against top-tier teams like Kansas, Duke, Auburn, Florida, Alabama, and Michigan State, they repeatedly failed to deliver.

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Heading into Selection Sunday, speculation swirled that UNC’s glaringly weak Quad 1 record would keep them out of the field. And there was precedent—the committee had snubbed a 20-win UNC team before, despite fewer losses. But this year, the Tar Heels dodged a bullet, benefiting from a lack of surprise conference tournament winners that could have stolen an at-large bid. So, where does that leave us? The debate will rage on.

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