Not many teams lose three of their last four games and still secure the overall top seed in the Big Dance. But Bruce Pearl’s Auburn Tigers did just that. They have got their impressive 16 Quad 1 wins to thank. ““If we don’t win a national championship, we’ll be disappointed, as a No. 1 seed,” said a determined head coach. But he is well aware that the games won’t be as easy as they should be for the overall No. 1 seed. Did the celebratory moment just turn out to be a challenge for the Tigers?

Auburn’s reward for coming out on top is a 110-mile trip to Atlanta for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, if they make it that far. It’s not just the distance. The games won’t be easy either. ESPN’s Seth Greenberg thinks Auburn has been hard done by the committee.

“The overall No. 1 seed got scr-w-d,” Greenberg said during The Pat McAfee Show when asked who got the worst draw. “I think they (Auburn) got the toughest second round game in the tournament … If they win their first game, they get a Creighton team.”

Auburn begins its March Madness journey at Rupp Arena, where they’ll face the winner of the St. Francis Red Flash vs. Alabama State Hornets in the First Four. If they win, which they should, it could set up an interesting round of 32 game against Creighton or Louisville– both runner-ups in their conference tourneys. Plus, if Pearl were to face the Cardinals, it would be just about 80 miles from the opponent’s home at Rupp Arena. Partial home-court advantage to Louisville on one side, but the Tigers HC or the program hasn’t had a good history at Lexington. That’s a blow in itself, but Pearl will have more in store next.

Michigan, the top no.5 seed, could be the team they face in the Sweet 16 provided both teams reach there. And that, Seth believes, will be a tough one for Pearl, the toughest in the South even.

“Michigan just won the big 10 tournament, Michigan’s got two 6’11” guys in Goldin and Danny Wolf… he’s a lottery pick, he’s a homeless Larry Bird in a lot of ways, you could run your offense through him, the guy is really really different. Those two guys on a ball screen together and it becomes an absolute problem how you gonna guard it.”

Goldin and Wolf have been Michigan’s top players this season. Together, they’ve averaged nearly 30 points per game and caused problems for every opponent they have faced so far. Michigan has 12 Quad 1 victories and isn’t a team that will back down easily. But the Sweet 16 is still a long way away. They’ll need to get past UC San Diego and Texas A&M/ Yale before they even get a shot at challenging Auburn– provided the Tigers beat their opposition as well.

Even though Auburn has one of the best resumes in college basketball, analysts aren’t sold on them winning the South region and making it to the Final Four. So, who do the analysts think will take the South? Let’s dive into that.

Analysts predict Bruce Pearl and co to not reach the Final Four

CBS’s Clark Kellogg and Seth Davis both think it will be the Michigan State Spartans who will reach the Final Four instead of the Tigers.

“I had Iowa State here but because of the injury to Keshon Gilbert, I’ll take the Spartans,” said Seth Davis talking about his favorite to reach the Final Four from the South. Clark Kellog also reiterated the same saying, “I’m going to take Michigan State, the regular season champs in the Big Ten,”

It’s not hard to see why Michigan State is the analysts’ pick to win the South. They have 13 Quad 1 wins. A solid resume. But that’s not all. Their offense and defense are among the best in the country. They average 78.2 points per game. On the other side, they hold opponents to just 67.2 points per game. That balance makes them a tough team to beat.

Bruce Pearl knows the road ahead won’t be easy. But that’s March Madness for you– there are no bad teams. To be the best, you have to beat the best. Time will tell if the analysts’ predictions are right, but Pearl won’t be shaken by it. He knows he has enough quality in the team to not repeat last year’s disaster in the first round of the big dance.