750. That’s an estimated number of players who entered the transfer portal the day it opened. And that’s more than double the number witnessed last year. One can debate about the goods and bads, make success cases for players such as Hailey Van Lith, and argue the depleting situations of mid-major programs. But coaches are consciously fueling this, call it a loop, and on the receiving end of the downside aren’t even the ones in college. A leader in the recruiting game, John Calipari, has some thoughts.

The 2025 portal officially opened on Monday and saw as many as 1000 players entering by Tuesday night. There’s still a month left, and the number is only expected to go up. But one realization here that Coach Cal brought up? There are fewer and fewer scouts in grassroots events. What were opportunities for new talents to emerge were replaced with glistening NIL money and big-name transfers, some even after just a year. The Arkansas head coach isn’t having it.

“There are kids in the United States that are freshmen that deserve scholarships to college that are not there,” Calipari said on The Pat McAfee Show. “Seven, 800 will not get scholarships, and they’re good enough, but we’re all waiting for transfers. That’s what disappoints me the most.”

Calipari, not a fan of NIL, also blames that very factor in high school for dividing up recruits. Known to have sent 49 players to the NBA in 15 years, he is used to recruiting 7 to 8 freshmen a season, and it was easier when a large set of them were available in one academy. “So you are not getting 6 guys at one school right now. If your high school prep school is not able to help them with NIL, you probably not gonna get as many kids,” he adds. But that’s one part of the problem. We see fewer freshmen because the coaches are banking their hopes elsewhere too.

“You have to look at what’s important. Do I have a chance at someone who’s played somewhere [in college] or am I going to stay here and watch future recruits?” Kevin Keatts had said back in 2023. So that’s how it has been.

Top programs like Duke can manage to land Top 25 from a new class every year. For the 2024-25, they have 3 from the freshman class who are regular starters and contribute double digit averages. What other programs are left with might not yield much, naturally directing coaches to the transfer portal. Money and program history is at play there too, but as Keatts notes, they’d rather chase experience. “If you’re not getting top 20 players or McDonald’s All Americans, you need older guys,” he added.

For the better part, transfer portals have worked impressively. Mark Pope and John Calipari are examples themselves. Both the coaches had to build their rosters ground up for the 2024-25 season and they used it to their advantage. Pope landed 9 guys in a month and they have led him to Sweet 16 thus far. Coach Cal? He welcomed 8 of them and now sees Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019. So a few coaches are right in their prioritization, but it is a harsh truth the new talents remain unexplored.

However, for what it’s worth, the current freshman class has upped the beliefs. Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, and Christian Anderson are just some names making noise this season. Per CBS mid-January data, 15 freshmen were averaging more than 14.5 points, 23 averaging 6.0 or more rebounds and another 12 averaging more than 3.5 assists. They have set some records since the COVID eligibility had backtracked them, highlighting junior, senior, and super senior classes. So maybe the coaches can place their trusts in freshman again.

But recruiting is no longer the game of talents. NIL is going to step in, play its cards for better or for worse, and the coaches are going to choose what fits best for them. Calipari doesn’t like that, but the system’s set and he has to continue to play his game.

John Calipari Drops Big News Ahead of Arkansas’ Sweet 16 Matchup

Huge news for Arkansas—Adou Thiero is back! John Calipari dropped the update on The Pat McAfee Show, saying Thiero will be available for the Sweet 16 game against Texas Tech. The forward has been out since Feb. 22 with a hyperextended knee, missing eight straight games. Now, he’s ready to go—though in a limited role.

“The most he’ll play? 12, maybe 15 minutes,” Calipari said. “But we need his toughness and athleticism.”

Before the injury, Thiero was a huge piece for Arkansas. He started all 26 games, led the team with 15.6 points per game, and averaged six rebounds and two assists. He kept the Razorbacks in the fight all season.

He’s not the only one coming back. Boogie Fland just returned, and Calipari made it clear how much he helped. “I played Boogie 15-18 minutes, and he helped us win the game,” he said. “He made the steal, the plays, the assists.”

Arkansas has already shocked everyone in this tournament. They took down 7-seed Kansas. Then they knocked out 2-seed St. John’s. Now, with the roster finally coming together, they look even stronger.

On paper, the Razorbacks are a 10-seed. But with Thiero and Fland back, they don’t feel like an underdog anymore. Texas Tech better be ready—Arkansas just got a whole lot tougher.