The Oklahoma City Thunder are riding high right now. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s (SGA) playing this season, and Chet Holmgren’s exceptional rookie year has the Thunder on the edge of something special. But not everyone is buying the hype. Former Warrior’s point guard Gilbert Arenas has thrown some serious predictions on OKC’s bright future in the latest episode of Gil’s Arena. During the episode, Arenas predicted financial trouble that could tear the second-youngest team before it reaches its potential.

His main point? The Thunder might not be able to afford to keep all their stars. It’s a reality check for Thunder fans—and a warning sign for other small-market NBA teams with long-term plans. 

“Can’t afford all of it”: Why OKC might be in trouble

The problem? As SGA and Holmgren continue to perform well and contribute to their teams’ victory, they’re going to want—and deserve—bigger contracts. That’s where things get tricky. OKC isn’t the Knicks or the Warriors, they don’t have the same financial flexibility. As Gilbert Arenas put it, “OKC is gonna fall because they can’t afford their team.” So, if Oklahoma City Thunder wants to keep its core team, it will have to pay big.

Let’s talk about this “generosity gap” that the former NBA star brought up. It’s no secret that NBA teams in big markets have more money. And! It’s not just because of their revenue streams, but also because they will spend big for the players they have on their rosters. Take the New York Knicks, for example. They didn’t hesitate to offer a $100 million deal to Jalen Brunson. A decision that’s paying off handsomely for them, too! 

But what about OKC? They’ve got SGA, an All-NBA talent who’s worthy of every penny of his contract. Then there’s Chet Holmgreen, who’s still on his rookie deal but shows great potential. Add Jalen Williams and a slew of other young players, and you’ve got one of the league’s most exciting rosters. 

So, can the Thunders avoid the fate of small-market teams? 

Here’s the thing: This isn’t the first time a small-market team like the Thunders has faced this dilemma. Teams like the Milwaukee Bucks and Utah Jazz have walked this tightrope before, grappling with how to keep their competitive play together without breaking the bank. 

Moreover, OKC’s general manager, Sam Presti, has been nothing short of a magician in the past years. Acquiring SGA through trade, getting Giddey, and banking on Holmgren as the franchise’s best. But this victory comes with a price. With these young players’ potential growing into higher salaries, the Thunders might have some tough choices about whom to keep and who to let go. 

Gilbert Arena points to his former team, the Warriors, as an example. Sure, the Warriors spent big to keep Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green, and it led to multiple championships too. But they’re in a league of their own for revenue. OKC simply doesn’t have that cushion to fall back on. 

It’s not all about money for small-market teams such as Oklahoma City Thunder; staying in the league is the main goal. It’s also about finding the right talent in the draft. The Thunders have built its current roster of rising starts on some creative drafting, but financial constraints may affect their future.

So what’s the move here? Do the Thunder go all in, pay the tax, and hope for a championship? Or do they take a safe route and trade their star players while their value is sky-high? It’s a gamble either way and the clock’s ticking. 

For now, Thunder fans! Enjoy the ride. The team’s young, talented, and fun to watch, indeed. But if Arenas is right, the financial predictions lurking around the corner could be the biggest opponent they will face yet. Can OKC rewrite the script in their favor, or will they fall victim to the same story seen before? Only time will tell.