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Can Luka Doncic outshine Giannis Antetokounmpo and lead Slovenia to an unexpected victory?

The highly anticipated matchup between NBA superstars Luka Doncic (Slovenia) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (Greece), who will face off for the first time as members of their respective national teams, is set to take place in the semifinal of the Olympic qualifier on Saturday at Peace and Friendship Stadium.

“As I’m aware, this is the first game they’re gonna meet each other in the National Team jersey, but I believe the Slovenian team is not only Luka, even though Luka is our main player,” Slovenia head coach Aleksander Sekulić said. “And Greece is not only Giannis. They have an amazing roster. I think it’s going to be Slovenia against Greece. But with two superstars on each side.”

After beginning the tournament with a loss against Croatia, Slovenia faced possible elimination against New Zealand before a 104-78 victory led by a 36-point triple-double from Doncic. Slovenia entered the match, looking for a win by at least 10 points to advance to the semifinal. Still, it needed a 29-point victory or larger to finish first in Group A, which would have resulted in the bracket being set where Greece would only be the opponent if both sides reached the final. With a 26-point lead and multiple missed three-pointers, including the final by Doncic in the corner, Slovenia came very close to achieving it.

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“We were aware that we disappointed the Slovenian fans against Croatia and that we had to show a better image on the floor,” Dončić said after defeating New Zealand. “Today, it was the real Slovenia, it’s just a shame that I didn’t hit that last shot, which would have given us an easier opponent in the semifinals…”

The stakes couldn’t be higher for Slovenia or Greece

The winner can compete for an Olympic bid in the final since only the tournament winner advances to the Paris Olympics. Meanwhile, the loser of the match gets eliminated. As Slovenia’s leader, Doncic, averaging 33.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 10.0 assists entering Saturday’s game, echoed the team’s sentiment that it doesn’t matter when Greece is the opponent. Reaching the Olympics would likely require defeating them at some point anyway, and they must embrace the challenge.

“We have to beat Greece if we want to go to the Olympics. It doesn’t matter whether it’s in the semifinals or the finals,” Dončić said. “It’s certainly not an easy task, as they have some great players in addition to Giannis Antetokounmpo. We will need a perfect match to win.”

Slovenia has been in a similar circumstance before. Before qualifying for the Tokyo Olympics, Doncic helped guide the team in Kaunas, which required a match against Lithuania, the favorites to advance. Slovenia lost to France 90-89 during the Olympics, positioning them in the Bronze medal game before losing to Australia. Had the team pulled it off, it would have been the first medal in men’s basketball in Slovenia’s history. This time, Slovenia must do it in front of a roaring Greek crowd that wants to see their national team clinch an Olympic bid for the first time since 2008.

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Can Luka Doncic outshine Giannis Antetokounmpo and lead Slovenia to an unexpected victory?

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“We are looking forward to the match with Greece. This will be a treat for basketball connoisseurs,” Dončić said. “Both teams have the same goal, which is to qualify for the Olympic Games. It’s true that the Greeks have an advantage in front of a crowd of 10,000 loud fans, but we also have our own plans, which we can achieve if we show our true face.”

Is Luka Doncic-led Slovenia ready?

Slovenia is strongly motivated to return to the Olympic stage and finish with a medal this time. However, even qualifying would mark history for the program, considering the team has not achieved consecutive Olympic appearances before. Despite having an All-NBA First-Team talent in Doncic, Slovenia faces a tall task when stacking up against a talented team like Greece that boasts a combination of size and skill outside of just Antetokounmpo. With 7-foot-1 Georgios Papagiannis, an elite facilitator like Nick Calathes, and Kostas Papanikolaou on the wing, along with a combination of shooting and athleticism in the unit, it’ll be a tough task to contain their offense, particularly with an undersized defensive unit anchored by 6-foot-7 Josh Nebo.

“They have size, they have skills, and they have experience. For example, they have Calathes, who is one of the best passers, if not the best passer in the EuroLeague, reading the game, ability to pass,” Slovenia coach Aleksander Sekulić said on Friday. “Also, the defensive part is very good with him. So I think they have both. They have size, they have skills, they have experience.

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With Nebo continuing to build chemistry with the team as a newcomer and Vlatko Čančar and Edo Murić coming off ACL tears, these players are all very much swing factors against Greece with necessary skill sets in important roles that must perform. In addition to basic factors like shooters making open looks or not turning the ball over too many times, Slovenia needs each player to find the comfort level to perform to their potential against Greece, but Sekulić remains optimistic.

“Vlatko and Edo Muric are coming out of the injury after a long recovery. They’re physically at one hundred percent, but, of course, you need time to get in the game shape,” Sekulić said. “And I believe they’re going to have ups and downs. Hopefully, be more ups than downs. But we need to be patient with them. They’re very important players for us. Sometimes they play good, sometimes not. Basketball is unique in terms of moving and everything. It’s challenging for both of them. I believe they’re going to, like, Josh, these two guys are going to be better and better continuing the games.”

The underlying theme against Dončić is that he’s coming off such a lengthy NBA postseason that included a Finals appearance before having only 15 days between playing Game 5 against the Boston Celtics and facing Croatia to open the qualifier. He has played 72 hard-fought minutes to guide Slovenia to this point. Meanwhile, Antetokounmpo has only totaled 18 for Greece thus far since his night was over early in a blowout victory against New Zealand, and advancement was already clinched before facing Egypt, so he sat out for rest.

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Antetokounmpo will be well-rested before facing Slovenia and highly motivated to help guide his national team to victory. “Giannis loves to be here. He loves to represent his country,” Greece coach Vassilis Spanoulis said. “He’s very humble. He’s part of the team. For a superstar, you don’t find this easy. … He’s about winning.”

Slovenia and Greece each practiced at Peace and Friendship Stadium on Friday before facing off against each other. Slovenia has dealt with a leg injury to Aleksej Nikolić, a helpful backcourt talent. He practiced on Friday and is considered a game-time decision against Greece. Meanwhile, Kostas Antetokounmpo is doubtful about playing after suffering a knee injury against Egypt, requiring him to undergo an MRI.