Analytics Reveal Winner of Lakers-Nuggets Series; LeBron James’ Team Given Fighting Chance

With the 2024 playoffs less than 24 hours away, the Los Angeles Lakers are beginning to flex their muscles. They ended the regular season in fabulous form, winning 7 out of their last 10 matches. This incredible form meant that the Lakers finished in the 8th spot of the Western Conference standings, and booked a matchup with the 7th seeded Pelicans in the play-in tournament. LA made light work of the Pels, as they clinched a first-round matchup against the Denver Nuggets.

However, the Los Angeles Lakers haven’t fared well against the Denver Nuggets in their recent meetings. The Lakers have only won 2 out of their last 10 matchups against the reigning champions. In fact, LA hasn’t secured a win against the Nuggets since 16th December 2022. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that the Denver Nuggets are considered as the odds-on favorite to overcome the Lakers in their first-round series.

Having said that, some statistics have given fans of the Lakers a bit of hope. According to Cranjis McBasketball, founder of the BBall Index, “The most likely outcomes in each of the 6 impact metric based models are Denver in 5/7 (in some order) and LA in 6.” They made such projections by using a “multi-year version of LEBRON.” The Playoff Outcome Probability gives the Nuggets a 61% chance of winning the series. However, this also implies that the Lakers also have a significant probability (39% to be exact) to advance into the next round.

Having said that, the most likely outcome remains a Nuggets victory, albeit in a thrilling seven-game series. With the odds stacked against them, can the Los Angeles Lakers finally find an answer to the Denver Nuggets conundrum?

Will the Los Angeles Lakers defy conventional wisdom?

Since the NBA expanded the playoffs from 12 teams to 16 in 1984, merely six 7th-seeded teams have managed to overcome 2nd-seeded teams. Therefore, it’s fair to suggest that the Los Angeles Lakers face a tall order to overcome the Nuggets. However, the last team to win the first round as a 7th seed were the Lakers. Last season, they defeated the Memphis Grizzlies in a feisty six-game series.

So the Lakers have the experience to pull off the improbable. But the reigning champs present a different challenge to that of the Grizzlies. Nikola Jokić has completely dominated the Lakers in their recent matchups. In fact, he has averaged 26.1 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 10.4 assists in his last 10 games against LA.

Apart from Jokic, the Lakers will also have to deal with the likes of Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. and KCP. Every player within the Lakers’ roster would have to step up if they want to overcome the challenge of the Nuggets. But could they? Let us know in the comments below!