Rough seas are becoming a year-on-year occurrence for Joe Gibbs Racing’s #19 driver. Around this time last year, Martin Truex Jr was heading to Miami after failing to make it to the 2022 playoffs. Hoping to make amends by adding to his win count, the driver faced one too many troubles at the Magic City and finished P6. A year later, it is highly questionable if he will fare any better as he takes the track on once more in the midst of another troubling season.

As he flies to Miami again, the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran will be hoping that his star bounces back from the string of 2023 playoff failures. The only element that the 43-year-old has got going for him in his corner, is his past record at the intermediate track.

The numbers are on Martin Truex Jr’s side even if momentum isn’t

After surviving the second round of the playoffs, Martin Truex Jr was optimistic about his chances at the round 3 tracks. They are all destinations where he has excelled before and he hoped that he would finally be able to turn things around for his team. Before the race in Las Vegas, he told the media, “They’re more straightforward [Round 3 tracks]. I feel like you could control your own destiny there. So, looking forward to that.”

While Truex Jr‘s hopes did shine through for a while in Las Vegas last weekend, he had to settle for a P9 finish in the end. This leaves him with just two more opportunities to fill a Championship 4 spot. The first of them is at the 1.5-mile track in Homestead-Miami. His past record at the track gives a lot of hope for the #19 team. In the 18 starts at the track, Truex Jr has scored 12 top-10 finishes, with an exceptional average finish of 9.7. Behind the #19 Toyota of Joe Gibbs, he has 3 top-1o finishes from 4 appearances. His only win at the track, however, came back in 2017 when he was crowned champion.

While these numbers reflect his caliber at intermediate tracks, it will take special effort and luck to pull off another win at the track after 5 long seasons. And a lot of effort will go into making sure that the #19 team does not repeat past mistakes like they did in Las Vegas.

Watch Story: The Unfortunate Gamble: Martin Truex Jr.’s NASCAR Cup Playoff Upset

Can Joe Gibbs Racing’s #19 team learn from past mistakes and have a shot at Phoenix?

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Repeating the same error from the 2022 South Point 400, the #19 crew chief James Small let his driver run too one too many laps without changing his tires last weekend. The team suffered heavily because of that. Martin Truex Jr was visibly frustrated with his team and himself after the race. After Small apologized for messing up the strategy, Truex Jr plainly responded, “I almost didn’t listen to you, but I’m not really good at that,” Small responded, “Yeah, you should not have listened clearly. We have no idea what we’re doing.”

Should the duo have any chance of keeping their employer happy, they will have to get better at the craft of learning from mistakes. With a lot at stake in the immediate vicinity, the first step towards that would be to avoid last year’s Miami mishap. Getting to the pit road last year, Truex Jr had swung in towards his own pit stall after HMS driver Larson caught him from behind.

Admitting that the cause of the accident was his own self, he said, “It’s really hard to see through these windshields right now with the sun like that and all the stuff covering it. (…) Obviously, that’s partly on me. I didn’t expect to get turned around. I’m glad nobody got hurt there.”

One of Truex Jr’s top-10 finishes followed after the turn. Unfortunately for him, a similar mistake and result will not cut it this year. The #19 team will have to refocus itself and get their knack for wins before time runs out completely.

Read More: “That’s a Losing Proposition”—NASCAR Insider Heavily Scrutinizes Joe Gibbs’s Strategy Blunder After Getting Agitated by Martin Truex Jr’s Playoff Misery