Will NASCAR Playoffs Be Overshadowed by Kyle Larson Bringing Back the Chase Elliott Effect?

Recent developments post-Gateway race paint a concerning contrast. As we stand, NASCAR has nullified all 17 of Kyle Larson’s playoff points earned in the thirteen regular-season races before his unfortunate no-show at the Coca-Cola 600. Some interpret this as NASCAR’s subliminal rejection of the #5 driver’s chances to win his second Cup Series championship. Others side with the still-unconfirmed “decision,” campaigning for more conformity towards a rule that seems to have been bent more often than not. However, all the buzz surrounding this hottest debate of the hour has only pointed more eyes to the one person it truly affects—Kyle Larson.

As Jordan Bianchi rightfully suggested earlier, Larson may even dethrone his 6x MPD teammate, Chase Elliott, to “win most popular driver this year.” That brings to light an interesting question: will Larson’s considerable following mimic the infamous “Chase Elliott effect” of 2023, due to his assumed absence from the present playoff picture?

Kyle Larson vs. NASCAR: A brewing fan rebellion

The Chase Elliott effect, simply put, is a potential viewership slump that comes forth when Larson’s #9 teammate is absent on a race weekend. This was well evident last year when the 2020 Cup champ missed a total of 6 races after suffering a fractured tibia from a freak snowboarding incident. This year, almost every race that Elliott was absent for in 2023 received a considerable viewership boost. For example, numbers for Bristol’s 2024 return to concrete (where the 6x MPD cracked the top 10 for the first time this season) were up by 10% from last year, according to Adam Stern of SBJ.

Similarly, after Kyle Larson attempted the first leg of his rain-delayed Double Duty at the Brickyard to finish P18, reports suggested an 8% increase in audience figures. Moreover, 2% fewer people tuned in than last year for the rained-out 2024 Coca-Cola 600, where Larson was unable to make a single lap, courtesy of Mother Nature. His premeditated decision is somewhat similar to his #9 teammate’s. In the sense that they both required a waiver upon their respective returns and their absence significantly hurt the ratings. NASCAR granted Elliott his waiver to finish 17th in the points table. But the sanctioning body’s hushed approach towards Larson’s uncommon situation has brought about some revealing speculations between Jordan Bianchi & his podcast partner Jeff Gluck on The Teardown.

The latter explained, ”Throughout the playoffs, you’ll have people looking at this saying, ‘Well, Larson would have been in the final four, Larson would have been running for the championship. So your entire playoffs is going to be overshadowed by this nonstop conversation that dates back to a rainy afternoon in May.” He justified his statement further, citing the innumerable number of Larson fans irked online by the latest developments on the points table: “You’re also going to have a lot of Angry, Angry people who are, you can already see them on social media, they’re saying, ‘I’m not going to watch NASCAR for the rest of the year. I’m not going to buy tickets.’”

Bianchi, however, disagreed with his colleague’s opinion, explaining that “there will always be people” inside the NASCAR community who don’t see things through to completion. To which Gluck pointed out a comparison clarifying his original thought, stating, “Look at the Chase Elliott effect that we just saw last year when Chase Elliott wasn’t in the races because of the broken leg. People did not watch. If Larson you right now say to all the Larson fans out there, which by the way, he’s becoming easily one of the most popular drivers in America… If they don’t let him in the playoffs, you will basically martyr Kyle Larson. He will become this figure of like, you know, the man is keeping him down…”

Gluck’s assumptions could certainly come true with the influx of newer fans resonating with Kyle Larson’s dominance on track and soft-spoken personality off it. Nevertheless, his waiver mystery remains unsolved following a P10 comeback at Gateway. And it appears a potential ruling for Larson could even warrant a rewrite of the rulebook as well as the broader NASCAR spectrum in general.

Will NASCAR rewrite the rulebook anytime soon?

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During post-race interviews with Fs1 this past Sunday, Larson let fans know what he thought of his recent misfortunes: “I think NASCAR is probably trying to figure out if I get a waiver, do they have to rewrite the rule … I really don’t care. I’m here to race. I’m gonna be here every weekend.” Barring last-to-last weekend at Charlotte, Larson holds two wins and three podiums in his fourteen prior points-paying outings. He even led current points leader Denny Hamlin in the drivers’ standings before his inability to perform on one weekend, courtesy of NASCAR pulling the plug 149 laps early on the rain-delayed Coca-Cola 600.

Gluck explained the growing dissent caused by these confusing situations best, when he said, “You’re talking about how this guy is having perhaps the best season of anybody and is not going to be part of the playoffs. Good luck explaining that one to your new Netflix crowd…”

But an even bigger stalemate is presented to NASCAR in the form of the owners’ standings, which is yet again being led by the #5 team. This provides Larson with added incentive, gunning for every single point, evident through an unrelated interview with FOX concerning the Kyle Busch spin late in Stage 2. Responding to RCR’s #8 driver’s sarcasm over what a “single point was really going to mean” for Larson, he elaborated, “I think every point is important for everybody in the field… We are trying to win the regular season championship and 15 bonus points go a long way. So yeah, every point was important.”

Although “the number five car in owner points is still the points leader,” as Gluck explains, the drama surrounding their chances of competing in the basic playoffs is stretching further than it warrants, simply due to the unwillingness of NASCAR to announce a decision. Will the sanctioning body make some swift calls soon? We must first wait for the next great stock car weekend in Sonoma, California.