Will Denny Hamlin Continue to Steamroll in Texas or Rick Hendricks Ace Stop His Party?

The Bristol night race has set the tone for the Round of 12 and what the probable championship could be like. The race bore witness to the elimination of the reigning champion, Joey Logano, for the first time, and also the outgoing driver and former Cup Series champion Kevin Harvick. On account of this, only three Ford drivers remain to contend in the championship.

Thus, it is safe to say that the contention has simmered down to the other two manufacturers; Toyota and Chevrolet, and the race at Texas Motor Speedway marks the beginning of the face-off between these two winning manufacturers. However, the question is who are the favorites that can lead their team as well as their manufacturers to the victory lane?

Denny Hamlin finds himself in an ambiguous situation ahead of the Texas race

In all three races in the Round of 16, three playoff drivers have swept the tracks, unlike the past year when non-playoff winners had taken the chequered. Nevertheless, among the three victories in the ongoing playoffs, it was Toyota that had seized two victories. Meanwhile, it was Kyle Larson of Hendrick Motorsports who added another crown to his roster after winning the race at Darlington. With NASCAR set to enter the track of Texas for the first time in the ongoing season, the NASCAR community waits with bated breath as to who shall be taking the first victory.

While a plethora of names have cropped up, the odds seem to skew between two drivers; JGR’s Denny Hamlin and his ‘friend’ from the rival team of Hendrick Motorsports Kyle Larson. Nonetheless, in order to unearth the possible victor at the opening race on Sunday, one has to delve deeper into the statistics and the past performances of the two drivers with respect to the present momentum.

Hence, the first quest is whether Joe Gibbs Racing’s veteran driver Denny Hamlin is the championship favorite for the 2023 season. Although the driver has faced a significant amount of setbacks in the regular season, he was able to notch two victories and rise in the points table. However, an emphatic 51st win at Bristol after settling down for the second position in Kansas seems to mark an abrupt change in the narrative of the driver’s championship-winning intention.

After confirming his berth for the second half of the post-season, the driver in his post-race interview proclaimed, “It’s our year,” and he won’t settle for anything unless he gets to kiss the championship trophy. Even NASCAR veteran Kyle Petty had reinforced the fact that the change in Hamlin’s demeanor displayed his championship-winning mentality. 

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However, a victory is not easily earned, and before the No.11 Toyota driver can be hopeful for the championship, a curve ball lies ahead of him on Sunday. That being Texas Motor Speedway. There is no denying that Toyota in the recent past has found immense success in the intermediate tracks like Texas. The amalgamation of Toyota’s prowess in the speedways and Hamlin’s momentum with a buffer of 21 points could be a dominating factor on Sunday.

However, if the past statistics are taken into account, the 2x Daytona winner has found very little success on this track. Hamlin’s best finish in the last five races that were hosted on this track was no more than nine. The driver even faltered in accumulating stage points that could provide cushion to the driver. 

Nevertheless, if the caliber of Toyota is to be trusted, and so is his momentum, the driver can score top 5 positions if not a victory, which could also help him to stay afloat over the cutline of the elimination round.

Kyle Larson could repeat the Darlington feat on Sunday

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To juxtapose, there are enough reasons for the JGR driver to fret about his Texas run. It is not only the numbers and the past outings that assert his unfavorable position, but also the presence of his friend-cum-rival Kyle Larson.

The Hendrick Motorsports speedster may not have been consistent throughout the year, but he was able to deliver when the need arose. This was also evident in the playoffs opener race at Darlington, as he cruised past the other drivers to secure his first win in Darlington. 

With the second half of the race at Texas, and with a 12-point ascendancy, Rick Hendrick’s star could not be more assured. Sunday’s track has always been favorable for Larson, he has two top-10 finishes, including a victory back in 2021. He also led a staggering lap of 256. 

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Having said that, it is likely that the two of the drivers could be seen once again running side-by-side and taking the chequered before the whole pack does. It will be interesting to see who wins on Sunday.