With the Round of 8 lineup next in the playoffs all of us cannot help but predict the drivers that could reach Championship 4. According to Denny Hamlin’s words, this lineup of eight drivers is perhaps the best he’s seen in a long time. Two drivers from Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske, three from Hendrick Motorsports, and a single representative from 23XI Racing make up the field for the top eight drivers.

However, Tyler Reddick from 23XI Racing is the one whose championship credentials are in doubt. It’s not due to the lack of speed on the #45 Toyota Camry or the numerical disadvantage. The history of the Championship 4 race is stacked against him, and he will need to move mountains to overcome this obstacle.

Apart from Tyler Reddick, every driver in the top 8 has made it to the Phoenix race

NASCAR racing has undergone significant changes ever since the roll-out of the Next-Gen car. The playing field became level; the smaller teams and the newcomers were able to match strides with the top dogs of the sport. Trackhouse Racing and 23XI have certainly made the most of these new dynamics, but as far as competing for the championship is concerned, there’s a clear difference.

In fact, in the last five years, there’s been only one instance where an underdog managed to reach the championship 4. This certainly casts a lot of concerns over Tyler Reddick’s playoff charge. Explaining the historical trend of how top teams have always dominated in reaching the final hurdle, Eric Estepp on his YouTube show said, “It’s really hard for a non-Penske, non-Hendrick, non-Gibbs car to make the championship 4, since 2019.”

“Over the past five years only one non-Hendrick, non-Penske, non-Gibbs car has made it to the championship 4, and that was Ross Chastain, Trackhouse in 2022, and he got to the championship 4 by riding the wall at Martinsville… I know 23XI has an alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing that is worth something. But it’s still difficult for a non-Gibbs, non-Hendrick, non-Penske car to advance these days,” Estepp added.

Looking at the historical trend, it is indeed an uphill climb for Reddick. However, looking at his 2024 season overall, he is the prime candidate to disrupt the order. Not to forget, NASCAR’s infamous one win and you’re in the model is still valid in the playoffs. And the first two races at Vegas and Homestead could provide him an avenue to reach his first championship race in Phoenix.

Do not count out Reddick just yet

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Tyler Reddick and the #45 team know how to dig deep when the odds are stacked against them. This was evident from his run at the Charlotte Roval, where he gained positions late in the race after being involved in a crash to secure a Round of 8 qualification. Not to forget, he managed to pipe Kyle Larson to clinch the regular season championship. So, with three races lined up ahead, it would be too naive to count him out of the contention.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway has been a good track for him. In the spring race, he was a car-length behind #5 of the Larson while crossing the finish line. Moreover, going by this Insider’s statistical comparison, Reddick just might have the strongest set-ups rolling into this weekend. “Tyler Reddick was almost 2 mph faster than the median speed; he was 1.837. Larson was fast; he was 1.693 over the median speed. But there’s still a pretty big gap there.” Greg Matherne said this on Reddick’s speed during the final stage of the spring race at Vegas.

To make his case more strong, he had been pretty solid at Miami Homestead too. In his four career starts at the 1.5-mile oval track, he’s managed three top-five finishes. He will have to overturn his misfortunes at Martinsville, though, as the short-track oval has proved to be a tough nut to crack for Reddick and his team. So he will have to make up ground in the first two races, and who knows, he just might find himself competing for the championship at Phoenix.