Which drivers would make the Championship 4 race in Phoenix? This has become a hot topic of debate among the NASCAR community. Although the drivers have to undergo the test of three races in the round of 8, it hasn’t stopped people from mentally preparing for the big race. Not only fans and experts, but even the drivers are now joining this discussion.

“This is maybe the best 8 ever assembled,” said Denny Hamlin, acknowledging the competition that he’s up against in the playoffs. And now his driver from 23XI Racing has joined in the conversation and has hand-picked Kyle Larson and William Byron as his picks to make it to the final 4. Moreover, he also made a bold claim that the fight for the rest of the spots will be among the rest of the field.

Tyler Reddick is aware of the threat he’s going up against in the playoffs

Kyle Larson is racing in a league of his own. Most laps led (1614), most wins in 2024 (6), and a cushion of 33 points going into the race at Vegas. Larson certainly is standing tall against his rivals. It gets even more scary when you take a look at his track record at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, where he’s going for his third straight win, along with his dominance at Martinsville and Homestead.

The #5 is indeed the team to beat, and they have a target marked on their backs. Joining him is his teammate William Byron, who seems recovered from the slump just in the nick of time. His last three starts ended with top 5 results, and very few teams will enter the Vegas race with such momentum. It looks like Tyler Reddick did his homework on his opponents. And when asked about favorites for Championship 4, the two HMS drivers stood out for him.

He also tipped his hat for Christopher Bell, who’s flown under the radar for the most part. “I think it’s so hard to predict in a one-race format, but certainly the way that 5 has performed, the 24 has performed, and the 20 I think have been doing a really good job. Yeah, you would expect those three to find their way, and I think it’s on the other five of us to put together a solid round.” Reddick said ahead of the first race of the semi-final stage in Vegas.

However, things are dicey for the #45 team, given that they are against a historical trend that puts them at a disadvantage. Also, there is concern about his consistency on the tracks lined up for the next three races.

The #45 team is up against the odds to reach the finale

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We often talk about how the Next Gen car has brought parity among the field, allowing smaller teams to compete against the top dogs. However, when it comes to racing for the championship, the likes of Hendricks, Team Penske, and JGR still hold an edge over their competitors. In the last five years, only one non-HMS, non-Penske, and non-JGR driver has reached the Championship 4. It was Ross Chastain during the 2022 season where he piped Hamlin to clinch the spot in almost a video-game-like move on the last lap at Martinsville.

Tyler Reddick finds himself in a similar situation now, as he is the sole representative of his team going against the top dogs in the series. Taking nothing away from his achievements in 2024, but the #45 team seems to have lost its spark after winning the regular season championship. Miami Homestead is perhaps Reddick’s best track that could aid his historic run. He has three top 5 finishes in four career starts. However, the other two tracks tell a different story.

Las Vegas has been a strong suit for him, but he will have to trade blows against the likes of Larson and Hamlin to come out on top. Meanwhile, the short-track oval at Martinsville has been a tough nut to crack for the #45 team. So, it’s fair to say the team has got their work cut out for them, and they will need to give it their all. A buffer of 10 points wouldn’t make much of a difference given how close the competition is amongst the drivers in the top 8.