Team Penske driver Ryan Blaney is on the verge of repeating the script of his maiden championship year. Nothing but a win would keep his title hopes alive at Martinsville Speedway, and he turned up in the clutch once again. He certainly took no prisoners late in the race when he passed Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott, both of whom missed out on the championship 4.

Seeing the #12 team turn up the heat late in the season, it is fair to say that Ryan Blaney is indeed a favorite to defend his title at Phoenix Raceway. However, there’s a catch. If we are to go by the streak of Blaney’s run, there’s a possibility that a driver outside of the final 4 could win the race in Phoenix. And going by the average finishes on the mile-long oval, Denny Hamlin emerges as the prime candidate to foil Blaney’s plans for a back-to-back championship win.

Denny Hamlin just might have a final say in deciding the champion

2024 looked like Denny Hamlin’s year finally, but call it a curse of his fate; he somehow cannot clear Round of 8. This was his third attempt in the Next-Gen car, where he failed to reach the final race in Phoenix. Ross Chastain was the one who stole his spot with the infamous hail melon move at Martinsville in 2022, and his 2023 attempt was derailed by mechanical failure on the #11 Toyota Camry.

While his hopes as a driver to win the championship have hit pause, he can still lift the trophy as the team owner. Tyler Reddick is still in the race, driving the #45 23XI Racing car. Now we know Hamlin cannot directly help his driver; he should know better after how NASCAR dealt with the situation at Martinsville. But he certainly can win the race and make it ever so difficult for the favorites like Blaney and play the role of a major spoiler. Ross Chastain did the same last year when he played the role of a major spoiler winning last year’s championship race.

Among the active drivers, Hamlin has the best average finish of 10.8 in 38 starts. Meanwhile, the Penske star in 17 races has an average finish of 10.9. In the Next Gen era, both drivers are evenly matched, especially during the fall race. Hamlin has two top-10 finishes, whereas Blaney has back-to-back runner-up finishes. Although it might look like the Penske star edges the JGR driver, he also has to look out for the other three championship contenders. And this is where Denny Hamlin could edge ahead, racing without the thought of losing anything.

Speaking of the other three contenders, the dynamics of the championship race are indeed different this time around. You have two seasoned drivers from the Penske camp who know what it feels like to be a champ. Whereas two young contenders are looking to cement their status as the best in the Cup Series garage.

Here’s how other championship contenders fare against Ryan Blaney

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If there’s one driver who poses a real threat to Blaney’s hope of consecutive titles, it’s none other than his teammate Joey Logano. The driver of the #22 Ford Mustang didn’t have the best of regular-season runs, winning just one race on his road to the playoffs. But thanks to the format, he turned the corner for good in the Round of 8 race at Las Vegas, and a fuel mileage win saw him reach his 6th final 4 appearance. He certainly is eyeing the historic feat of becoming a driver to win more than two championship trophies. And this is what makes him the favorite for the race in Phoenix.

William Byron from Hendrick Motorsports is a year wiser from his first Championship 4 appearance. Last year he was on a roll with 6 wins to his name across the season, but 2024 has been steady progress. He had three wins early in the season, and then he had to find his lost mojo, which he did during the playoffs. While he is still on the search for his 4th win of the season since Martinsville, he can pull off a mega victory at Phoenix. With the muscle and might of Hendrick Motorsports behind his back, he will be one to watch out for.

On one side, 23XI Racing is battling NASCAR in the courtroom, and on the other, their driver, Tyler Reddick, is racing for the championship. He sure won’t need any extra motivation when he steps into the #45 Toyota Camry on Sunday. Talking about his credentials, he has won two Xfinity Series championships in the current format. So while Logano knows how to milk his way through to the big race, Reddick knows how to finish the job. His win will be nothing short of an underdog story and one that stands out among the rest.

Who are you rooting for among the four championship drivers? Do let us know in the comments.