As we proceed to the playoffs, our path is laden with damp obstacles. The weather gods are preparing for yet another fierce showdown as we head back to Daytona International Speedway. But NASCAR has it covered—unlike the Daytona 500’s sunset timings, the Coke Zero Sugar 400 happens well after the sun takes its leave. That might narrowly avert Mother Nature’s predicted visit.

The upcoming race will be a wild one for all the drivers not yet in the playoffs. It will be the second-to-last attempt to engrave one’s name in the playoff bubble, with many prominent drivers projected to win. And unlike weeks of rain-drenched racing, the weather will not be a thorn in their sides.

Coke Zero Sugar 400 – Weather: 0, NASCAR: 1

Daytona is renowned in NASCAR’s history for wooing the rain. Since 1999, 25 of the summer races on the track have been delayed, shortened, or postponed due to bad weather—21 of those were in July, and the last 4 in August. This year’s Daytona 500 had to be pushed back a whole day, and William Byron seized the checkered flag on Monday. However, unlike the usual Sunday routine, the Coke Zero Sugar 400 is being held on Saturday. As has been the tradition since 1998, the race will also start at 7:30 PM.

This gives NASCAR a head start in its battle with inclement weather. RaceWeather shared why this is so in a Twitter post: “Luckily, the storms in the #CokeZeroSugar400 at @DAYTONA forecast will mostly be concentrated in the morning & afternoon hours. With the races being at night, chances for rain and lightning delays will be low once the races start.” This would luckily counter the delayed Michigan race that Tyler Reddick won last week.

The National Hurricane Center tracked three tropical waves in the Atlantic and also a cold front off the coast of Northeast Florida. This would support showers and thunderstorms throughout the weekend. With precipitable water values over 2 inches, floods could also be a possibility. The Weather Channel reported that “a slow-moving cold front will stall across Central Florida this week. Areas north of the front will see a slightly cooler and less humid air move in, but many will remain hot and humid.”

Yet, as RaceWeather updated, there are chances of thunderstorms between 8 AM and 2 PM. After that, the chances of Mother Nature intervening become much slimmer. Most Cup drivers are relying on that to make this weekend a success.

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At the ‘World Center of Racing,’ a driver’s luck is subject to enormous volatility. This is evident in Daytona’s last seven races—the driver who won led for 10 laps or fewer in six of those events. And the leading drivers usually wound up in a dire state. So Cup Series racers will need all the luck they can muster to excel at the Coke Zero Sugar 400. Drivers like Chris Buescher and Bubba Wallace are desperately trying to secure their spots in the 2024 playoffs. Yet the projections focus on others.

According to a Racing Insights model, Ryan Blaney has the highest chances to win. The Team Penske driver has an 11.3 average finish on drafting tracks in the Next Gen era, the best among active drivers. Blaney also has four wins in drafting-style races and has finished in the top two in 33% of the last 24 races. Meanwhile, the top four point leaders scatter the race field in projections. Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott may clinch top-fives, Denny Hamlin will land in the top ten, and Kyle Larson is projected to finish 14th.

Evidently, the upcoming Daytona race will be a clash of the best racers. Trailing them will be the playoff hopefuls as their 2024 playoff gates close off soon.