After a grueling season of competing in 36 races in a NASCAR season, it all boils down to the final race. Just a single attempt for the driver to etch their names in the history books. Well, it does have an element of luck surrounding it, especially after a long season and multiple knock-out stages. But it’s the one race that counts.

Some fans argue that the current playoff structure reduces the regular season to a mere formality. Former Cup Series driver Rick Mast is among the skeptics, questioning the wisdom of a single race deciding the champion. Mast even highlighted Tony Stewart’s 2011 championship-winning season, claiming that despite being the undeserving driver, he somehow swept the title at the business end of the season.

Rick Mast isn’t up for the championship driver debate

With the season hitting the halfway mark and under a two-week Olympics break, it allows the community to make their prediction about the favorite to lift the title. Despite the whole journey of the knockout stage, the major discussion revolves around that one driver. But for Mast, the discussion surrounding the Champion 4 drivers makes more sense.

“I’m like, guys it comes down to one race in Phoenix and who happens to have the right spring and shock combination that day. But to get there you gotta get to the final 4 at Phoenix, right? That to me, the significance of all this stuff we could talk about is who are those final four gonna be. That’s the part I think should be talked about and focused on.” Mast opined while speaking on Kenny Conversations.

He even drew parallels to how the playoffs haven’t always favored the better-running drivers. Rather, it’s gifted championships to those who tweaked their way out of the mediocre season with a few upgrades during the playoffs. He specifically highlighted Tony Stewart’s 2011 championship win. While he was unable to win a single race in the 26 regular season races, he somehow turned his season around in the final 10 races.

“I always go back to the year Tony Stewart won the championship. Tony running like crap not doing well his chances of making it were bad … Three months later, he’s a freakin champion. They found a little combination under the car, a shock or spring or whatever, and all of a sudden it took him running like crap to winning the freaking championship.” He added.

So while the playoffs are designed to reward the consistent running drivers throughout the season, the idea of a single-race finale somewhat negates that whole process. Now this is something the Penske drivers like to do; they’ve got a tendency to turn up late in the season and take everyone by surprise. But, fortunately, the 2024 season is shaping up to be quite interesting, with multiple drivers in the hunt for the title.

Predicting Championship 4 drivers for the 2024 NASCAR season

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Keeping in mind Rick Mast’s analogy, the effort here would be to draw attention to four drivers and not a solo winner. The playoffs have undergone significant changes since Tony Stewart’s triumph in 2011. Back then, the driver with the most number of points in the final ten races would win the championship. And with Stewart winning five of those ten races, he had no competition.

Ever since 2017, the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs have demanded that drivers bring their A-game for every race. Let us call them the knockout stages, as they are divided into the Round of 16, the Round of 12, the Round of 8, and the Championship 4. A win essentially secures a driver’s entry to the next round or they have to gain maximum points to progress further.

The first and obvious pick to make the Championship 4 is Kyle Larson. He’s just been in an impressive run of form so far in 2024. He is currently the favorite to clinch the regular season championship and bag those 15 bonus playoff points. He’s going to be tough to compete against, that’s for sure.

Next up, we have Denny Hamlin. It looks like 2024 might finally be his year after all. The No. 11 Toyota has been nothing short of a rocket ship and has collided against the No. 5 Chevy a lot this season. So far, Hamlin leads the charge in terms of most laps led (772), and his dominance on the short tracks has been impressive. So keep an eye out for him.

Ryan Blaney is that one Ford driver who could give the top contenders a run for their money. It has been a mixed 2024 season so far for the Penske star, but hey, Ford drivers like to turn up in the playoffs and that’s exactly what is expected of the #12 team. In the last five races, the #12 Ford has emerged as the car to beat. And after the two-week break, they will look to dominate the proceedings again.

Last but not least, Tyler Reddick is our fourth and final pick. This might come as a surprise to a few, but it’s hard to ignore how close Reddick has been able to close the gap between him and the top dogs of the Cup Series. Do not judge his run on the back of a single win, as he was close to winning multiple races so far. Nine top 5 finishes give you an idea of how consistently the No. 45 car has run up the field.

Arguments can be made for Christopher Bell and even Chase Elliott. But for the time being, these four drivers are the front runners to make the championship 4.