This weekend is do or die for Denny Hamlin if he wants to save his championship bid. For far too many years, the Joe Gibbs Racing star has been so close, yet so far from a Cup Series title. Unfortunately, it looks like 2024 could become yet another missed opportunity for the #11 driver if he doesn’t pull up his socks.

Arguably, Hamlin is in this situation largely through his own making. At the Atlanta Motor Speedway, he was relegated to the back when his car failed inspection. However, he was banking on the unpredictable and chaotic nature of NASCAR to propel himself forward. In essence, he was hoping that there would be multiple wrecks, which hopefully involved his Playoff rivals.

Sadly, that was not the case, and Joey Logano was the first to book his Playoff berth. At this point, there was no real reason to panic, as there were two races left, so roll on Watkins Glen. Unfortunately, this one was largely down to being plain unlucky, as Corey LaJoie decided to cause chaos. He punted Kyle Busch into a spin, and that knocked out a bunch of drivers, including Hamlin.

Denny Hamlin knows that Bristol is his last chance

This weekend, the veteran driver knows that he cannot afford to make any mistakes. One mistake could cost him qualification, and his chances have been boosted with an 8th place on the grid. This is a race that he has won four times in his career, and as recently as earlier this year, so he should be a favorite.

In light of this, the #11 driver has insisted that he is not going to scrounge for points and sneak through. If he is going to qualify for the Round of 12, Hamlin would prefer to try to win his way in, like Logano at Atlanta. He said in the pre-race press conference, “Yeah man, I’m coming here to win. That strategy won’t change unless the situation changes in the race.”

To be honest, Denny Hamlin must have been thanking his lucky stars that Watkins Glen saw a non-Playoff winner. Chris Buescher would have probably become the best friend for many NASCAR drivers. Regardless, the onus is now on Hamlin to try to revive his hopes of a Cup Series title.

Can the #11 driver rely on teammate aid?

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The bad news is that Hamlin is up against all three of his teammates to make it into the Round of 12. There will probably be no chance of teamwork making the dream work, instead it will be every man for himself. Even in the case of Bubba Wallace, who isn’t a Playoff driver, his priority, ideally, will be to help his own teammate, Tyler Reddick.

If he can win his way in, that would be the ideal scenario, and it would also be a hat-trick of Bristol wins. To be precise, Hamlin triumphed in the 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race, and the 2024 Food City 500. However, the bad news is that he has six Playoff drivers to battle his way past.

Among them are pole-sitter Alex Bowman and his teammates, William Byron and Kyle Larson. Fortunately, Hamlin has his own teammates, Martin Truex Jr lining up in 4th, and Christopher Bell lining up in 6th. Sandwiched in between them is Stewart-Haas Racing star and future JGR driver, Chase Briscoe. However, there is a wildcard thrown in the mix, and his name is Carson Hocevar. What may make things worse is that Denny Hamlin has Chase Elliott behind him in 10th. Between them is Corey LaJoie, who is known to start wrecks, so many will be wary of him.