By now, we all know what happened with Kyle Larson during Memorial Day weekend this year. After Mother Nature threw a few wrenches their way, Rick Hendrick & co.’s $3M estimated crossover with the ‘Greatest Spectacle in Open-Wheel Racing’ turned into a major disappointment.

It all started stellar, with the parties involved keeping their contingency plans close in case something went south. And what would you know? Everything that could go wrong, went wrong.

A speeding penalty took him out of contention for a top-10 finish at the Indy 500. Then, ceaseless rains over the Indianapolis Motor Speedway forced the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte to go green with Justin Allgaier in Kyle Larson’s seat.

The 2018 Xfinity champ fought hard and put the #5 car in 13th position around Lap 248. Until it occurred that the rain clouds had followed Kyle Larson from Indianapolis to Charlotte. Only a lap later, the race was red-flagged because of relentless weather. Larson became just another casualty of the infamous logistical barriers of the Indy-Charlotte double, as he wasn’t able to run even a single lap.

This sparked a whole new debate for weeks to come: should Kyle Larson get a waiver for missing an entire race? Well, long story short, he did. Right now, the man sits as the number-one seed in the 2024 playoffs.

Should Kyle Larson Repeat the Double or ditch it?

However, this past week, Larson ended up expressing his regrets about a missed “chance at winning one of the two, or both (speaking of the Double)” to Jenna Fryer of the Associated Press. He informed his fans that the talks were “progressing” and he liked that, “but obviously things can always change.”

After these revelations came from Larson, the NASCAR community went into a frenzy to discuss the potential implications of Double Duty 2.0 for Kyle Larson. So, to understand what the fans have been discussing, our analysts at EssentiallySports sent out some specialized surveys to our exclusive Lucky Dog on Track community, asking them if Hendrick Motorsports should repeat the double next year. And the responses haven’t been as diverse as usual.

To begin with, approximately 72.87% of our users voted, that it would be “Great for NASCAR”–a clear majority. The rest split between those calling it “a total disaster” and others saying “it’s not that simple” to attempt another ‘Double.’ Regardless, the first demographic had plenty of calculated thoughts to share for their choice of answer.

One reader who asserted they weren’t a ‘Hendrick fan’ wrote, “Because Hendricks has the money and it’s a great challenge considering the distance and the stamina it takes to drive two races.” Another concurred with this sentiment as they replied, “It’s a testament to the athletic ability of the driver.” Even more, believe another “gifted top-level driver (will have) the opportunity to show the versatility of NASCAR performers.”

Those who opposed wrote things like, “If he misses NASCAR race he should not get a waiver like he did this year,” which is a fair opinion. Others of a similar school of thought commented, “I have never liked for any of the drivers to try to do doubles. One or the other. Pick your choice & do your best for it. No jumping around!” 

Then again, it’s the Indy-Charlotte Double. A very select group of drivers get to say they’ve attempted it. Fewer have been able to complete all 1100 miles of this ultimate test of human endurance. Sure, it does not span entire weeks like the Dakar Rally, or even a whole day like the 24 Hours of Daytona. However, before the last opportune Monday in May, motorsport fans everywhere await as the Indy 500 and Coca-Cola 600 roll out the red carpet for driver(s) bold enough to chase the figurative ‘world’s greatest driver’ crown.

This past summer, Kyle Larson joined a stellar list of names including John Andretti, Robby Gordon, and Kurt Busch. Similar to his peers, the Hendrick driver became yet another casualty of the unforeseen perils brought about by the ‘Double Duty.’ But come next year, things could look a lot different for our 2021 Cup champ.

As must be common knowledge, the agreement between Arrow McLaren and Hendrick Motorsports to field Kyle Larson’s Indy 500 entry was under a two-year arrangement. And just like Larson confirmed to AP, “We’re still working on it.” Hence, the parties involved are most likely working hard to make the Double 2.0 a reality in 2025, or even later. After all, if anyone could do the impossible, it’s ‘Yung Money’. 

But what’s been on the man’s mind, knowing he has the highest odds out of all 16 drivers to win his second championship on Hendrick Motorsports 40th anniversary?

Kyle Larson is a heavy favorite for Championship 4

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NASCAR statistician, Neil Paine, used an advanced race simulation system to predict the potential winner at the Championship 4 race in Phoenix. The ‘system’ ran numbers through 10,000 simulations, analyzing every scenario to predict a winner before the playoffs kick off in Atlanta this Sunday. Interestingly, the results suggest Kyle Larson has the highest chance of advancing to the end, as one of the four drivers battling for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series championship on November 10th.

According to the forecasts, Larson holds a 22.3% chance of hoisting his second Bill France Cup, followed by Tyler Reddick (16.2%), Christopher Bell (15.6%), William Byron (10.4%) and Denny Hamlin (9.3%). So, when the media asked him about his thoughts on all the hypothetical statistics that have him placed above everybody else, he replied, “I don’t care about odds, really,” as quoted via TobyChrsistie.com. He explained, “NASCAR, especially in the Next Gen era, is just crazy. There’s so much inconsistency these days that you can easily find yourself in trouble. It doesn’t matter if you have a 35 or 40-point buffer to the cutline currently.”

With four races won, 10 Stages claimed, and coming up only a point short of the Regular Season Championship, Kyle Larson now has 40 playoff points to take with him to the Round of 16. Whether he capitalizes on all the work done so far remains to be seen. As for a potential Double Duty next year, he must hope the weather plays fair. Regardless, you best believe when the opportunity pops up, he will pounce at the earliest.