Few drivers with next to no oval experience would have been given a pathway into NASCAR’s top series at the age of 34. Shane van Gisbergen was grateful for that. He joined Trackhouse as part of its Project 91 initiative, and the idea was for a road-course ace to turn into an all-round package. Fast forward to 2026, and he has shown real signs of improvement on ovals, which, ironically, could now pose a problem to Justin Marks’ organization.

Van Gisbergen’s current deal could leave him available after the 2027 season, giving rival teams a chance to pull him away from Trackhouse. According to The Athletic’s Jordan Bianchi, some of NASCAR’s biggest teams are already looking at 2028 and weighing up whether they can bring the New Zealander into their own garages.

“Next year, his contract. There’s options and everything, but he’s basically a free agent after 2027,” said Bianchi on his Teardown podcast. “Okay. I’m telling you right now, we’re looking ahead a little bit to 2028.”

Trackhouse Racing signed SVG to a multi-year extension in August 2025, securing his NASCAR Cup Series future through at least 2027. But if SVG ends up being a free agent, he would almost certainly strike up a bidding war with what he brings to the table.

“SVG is somebody to watch. There are teams out there that are looking at this guy going, big teams are looking at him going, ‘Man, we get him in one of our cars. Like we’re better than Trackhouse. We’re going to win some road course races. And you know what he can do on an oval, like he’s good now on ovals. Like, he’s going to have options, and he’s going to be.”

Van Gisbergen arrived in America as a three-time champion of Supercars, Australia’s premier touring car series. He quickly showed what he was capable of, winning his first-ever NASCAR start in Chicago. He followed that with a 10th-place finish at the Indianapolis Road Course later that year, prompting Trackhouse to sign him to a development contract.

Trackhouse had to be patient with him. His performances in 2023 showcased his talent, but they did not prove he could handle an entire NASCAR season. Stock cars behave differently, and Cup drivers spend much of the year racing on ovals.

Van Gisbergen ran a full season in the Xfinity Series [now the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series] in 2024 before moving to the Cup Series full-time in 2025. He won five races that year, establishing himself as one of the field’s most dangerous road-course drivers. However, his results also highlighted the areas where he still needed to improve.

His average finish on road courses from 2023 through 2025 was 7.6, compared with 25.0 on other tracks, according to NASCAR.com’s July 2026 analysis. That gap mattered. Cup teams cannot build a championship campaign around a handful of favourable weekends. They need drivers who can deliver results throughout the schedule. Van Gisbergen has been working to close that gap.

He is becoming less dependent on road courses for strong results. His average oval finish improved from 27.5 in 2025 to 19.25 in 2026. He also scored his first Cup Series oval top-five with a fifth-place finish at Nashville, where he led 12 laps, before matching that result at North Wilkesboro after leading 49 laps. Back-to-back top-10 finishes at Las Vegas and Charlotte later in the season offered further proof of his progress.

For Trackhouse, that progress presents a familiar problem in professional sport. The organisation took the chance on van Gisbergen and helped him adapt to a new discipline. If he becomes a more complete Cup driver, other teams could benefit from the work Trackhouse has already done.

There is a reason teams are already looking toward 2028. Hendrick Motorsports announced in August that Connor Zilisch would leave Trackhouse to join its No. 48 Chevrolet, replacing Alex Bowman after his planned departure from full-time competition. Zilisch is set to remain with Trackhouse through 2027 before making the move.

That announcement shows how early teams can settle major seats. It also illustrates how one driver decision can affect the wider market. With Hendrick’s No. 48 lineup set, attention could turn to other openings and drivers whose contracts may soon give them choices.

Bianchi’s comments suggest larger teams believe they could get more out of van Gisbergen than Trackhouse does. That is a claim, not proof that negotiations have begun. No rival team has been confirmed as a suitor, and there is no indication that van Gisbergen has decided to leave.

Trackhouse has reasons to fight to keep him, too. The team knows his strengths, understands the areas he is still developing, and has already seen the results of its investment. Leaving a winning environment would be a major decision for Van Gisbergen, even if another organisation offered a more attractive package.

Van Gisbergen was Trackhouse’s biggest bright spot in an otherwise difficult season. The team struggled with its new Chevrolet body, which forced its engineers to rebuild much of their setup data. SVG and Zilisch also reported a lack of straight-line speed, making it harder to compete with the front-runners.

Despite these challenges, Van Gisbergen continued to deliver on road courses and made progress on ovals. His two road-course wins were among the team’s few highlights, as he, Zilisch, and Chastain all missed the Chase.

SVG’s performance next season could play a key role in his future. Continued progress on ovals would make him an even more attractive option for rival teams, while a lack of improvement could leave his value tied mainly to his road-course success.