,For a long time, the NASCAR community considered AJ Allmendinger the undisputed road course king. After all, he has 14 road-race victories in the NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series. Which are the most by any driver in NASCAR’s three national series. 17 times he has visited the victory lane in the Xfinity Series, out of which, 11 times were on road courses. In addition to this, all of his three Cup wins have also come on road courses.

However, the king was robbed of his crown with the arrival of Shane van Gisbergen. The three-time Australian supercar champion shocked the NASCAR world by winning his debut race Cup race on the 2023 Chicago street circuit. Kaulig’s decision to sign him for a full Xfinity season in 2024 has proven to be a game-changer, as the Kiwi’s dominance on road courses has made him a formidable force to reckon with. However, the next road course battle is at the Charlotte ROVAL. Both are in the elimination zone and things will surely get intense!

Can Shane Van Gisbergen show his magic at the ROVAL?

The supercar champion is well-versed in road courses which has been evident in his runs. The #97 driver in his Xfinity debut has managed to bag 3 wins in the regular season, and guess what? all three have been on road courses. Starting with the Portland International Raceway and then a back-to-back win at Sonoma. And lastly, SVG dominated the Chicago street race to bag his third win. What really shows his prowess is that in all three races, he started in the top 2 positions (twice from pole).

However, the Kiwi struggled a bit at the Watkins Glen race. What should have been a cakewalk victory ended in a P5 finish, as his Trackhouse teammate Connor Zilisch dominated the race in his Xfinity debut. This is the only race this season where Allmendinger had an edge over SVG as he finished in P3. The race showed a glimpse of the old Allmendinger that we know of. If the #16 has finally found his form back, there could not have been a better time.

Both Shane van Gisbergen and Allmendinger are in the elimination zone, however, Allmendinger has had a more consistent playoff than his Kaulig teammate. This has placed him in the 9th position, with only -10 points below the cutoff line. Whereas SVG, after a disappointing Talladega race with a P35 finish, is currently 11th in the standing with -21 points.

To Allmendinger’s good fortune, the next race and also the eliminator is at Charlotte ROVAL. A track that has been Allmendinger’s stronghold for a long time. He won the race on all the last five occasions that he raced there. Four times in the Xfinity (2019-2022) and once in the Cup in the 2023 race, when he played the spoiler. Since SVG has never raced on the ROVAL, things look in Allmendinger’s favor.

However, even though AJ Allmendinger has the advantage, SVG has his road course form backing him. SVG in all of his last five road races in NASCAR, has finished in the top 5. His latest one was a P2 finish in the Watkins Glen in the Cup Series, where he almost won the race until Chris Busecher outsmarted him.

This form of SVG has made Allmendinger uncomfortable going into the Charlotte race. As the veteran is not very confident of continuing his dominance on the track.

AJ Allmendinger is not confident about the ROVAL

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Ahead of the race, the #16 said, “I go into this weekend probably with the least amount of confidence that I have ever been going into the Roval. You know, I looked at Talladega as a race I was like, ‘I’ve probably got more of a chance to win there than I do at the Roval.’” This is thanks to SVG’s dominance as well as Allmendinger’s fading form on road courses.

In 2023, Allmendinger ran a full Cup Season with Kaulig, and, other than his ROVAL victory, his road course performance was mediocre. Moreover all the other road course races, he stayed out of the top-5 and this was before SVG made his debut. In COTA last year, Allmendinger finished 34th, this is the track where he’s won twice in the Xfinity Series. Although he bettered his form in this year’s Xfinity Season, he still stayed out of the top 2.

At COTA he finished 10th, followed by a P4 at Portland, a P17 at Sonoma, and a P11 finish in the Chicago street race. Even if SVG was not there, Allmendinger would have found himself far from the victory lane. Although SVG’s dominance is a factor, it’s more Allmendinger’s bad form affecting him.

The Kaulig driver too agreed when he said, “On the Xfinity side of it, for sure, it’s just — because if you take SVG out, I don’t win any of the races this year. It’d be different if SVG was winning and I’m running second and I’m like, ‘yeah, just got to figure out a way to beat my teammate.’ But like, literally, if he’s not in the race, I still don’t win any of those races.”

Overall, it could be a tight battle between the two, as for both, getting a win is crucial to progress to the next round. Who do you think will dominate the race? Let us know in the comments below.