Reigning Cup champ Ryan Blaney will roll off the grid in the 20th position at Homestead. In a few days, he could become a 2x Bill France Cup winner. But he must first make it past the elimination cutline. And currently eyeing a 47-point deficit, the #12 team can afford no mistakes in Miami. Otherwise, they might have to kiss their championship dreams goodbye even before we get to Martinsville.

A lot could go wrong for Ryan Blaney. But then again, a lot could go right. He might book his automatic spot in the Championship 4 by winning the race on Sunday. However, to predict the whirlwind of emotions that’s been a mainstay at Homestead-Miami for the last 25 years has never been that easy. Unfortunately, the iconic 1.5-miler will not be part of the Playoffs next year. That is not a good look for NASCAR, considering the facility has steadily become a post-season favorite for many diehards in recent years. 

Adios, Homestead? Drivers and track President long for Playoff return

Ryan Blaney has never won at Homestead (not even in the other two National Touring Series. But he’s also never ended a race early in his 9 Cup Series appearances here. Last year, in his championship-winning season, Team Penske’s #12 driver placed 2nd, his highest finish at the racetrack. Apart from that,

• He has one more top-5 finish, and two top-10 finishes in his 9 prior Cup races in Miami.
• He has an average finish of 16.8 in those nine races.

For eighteen years, Homestead-Miami Speedway hosted the NASCAR Cup Series championship finale. That was until 2019, when the sport shifted directions with Phoenix Raceway receiving the last date of the Playoffs. Many would agree that these two tracks ensure that the cream usually rises to the top when the final 4 battle it out for the ultimate prize. Others aren’t too happy with the lack of passing on these ‘intermediate’ proving grounds. Ryan Blaney is part of the first demographic.

Before his Homestead advance, the 2023 Cup Series champion answered a series of questions for the media. Answering a question from Daniel McFadin for Frontstretch, Blaney said, “I mean the last 4 races of the year… the best teams kind of rise up. You kind of have a little bit more traditional racetracks, especially this round and then Phoenix, and you kind of get the best of the best, which is how it should be.”

As for the racetrack losing its Playoff date to Talladega Superspeedway, Blaney lamented, “I wish this place was in the Playoffs next year. It’s unfortunate it’s not, because I think it puts on a great show and it’s a pretty tough track to run well at, and you have people that, you know, push a little hard and make mistakes. And it can ruin your playoffs and like that’s neat to watch and that’s neat to be a part of.”

“So, yeah, maybe in ‘26, it’ll be back,” hoped the 30-year-old Trumbull County native. “But yeah, these last few handful races are really good. And I think, if you can get here, you know, then you have to really step up and your team does too. And it shows who’s, you know, kind of the top guys that deserve to run for it (the championship).”

For nearly a decade, Chevy and Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota drivers have consistently been the ‘top dogs’ at Homestead-Miami. In fact, JGR Toyotas have claimed 5 of the last 10 victories on the racetrack, while Ford Performance’s only win at Homestead in that span was with Joey Logano in 2018 when the Team Penske #22 won his first championship. But the Japanese OEMs haven’t won a single race in the 2024 Playoffs yet, So who knows?

Maybe it’s time for a Toyota driver to win when it matters. Here’s looking at bubble-dwelling Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick, and even Christopher Bell, the defending winner of this race, who’s 42 points above the cutline, sitting second in the Playoff picture. 

Regardless, this excitement won’t resonate at Homestead next year. As the racetrack moves to an earlier summer date in March 2025, the ‘top guys’ will battle it out at Gateway and Loudon instead, in the postseason. Those are the two recent additions to the Playoffs in the 2025 schedule release. And let’s not forget, Round 16 of the 2025 season will feature the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City hosting a Cup date beyond American borders after nearly seven decades.

However, the new Homestead-Miami track president, Guillermo Santa Cruz, could be looking at a different magic ball in 2026. Santa Cruz, who only recently started his new job in NASCAR, does not want Homestead in the playoffs. In his words to motorsports.com, “We would love to have the championship back.”

“We make no bones about it,” he declared. “I’m very open about it and it takes a lot to bring a championship to any city. The fact that it was here for 18 years was obviously a plus because we have that tradition. We have the incredible weather that we typically have this time of year. We have the Florida Keys [a] 20 minute drive away. There’s a lot to offer here — not only for the drivers, but for the spectators and everybody who loves motorsports.”  

And Cruz is not wrong at all. Homestead-Miami is one of those most loved racetracks of all time. From its aesthetic value and the Florida skyline to the pure and distinguishable racing product, fans have a variety of reasons to share the same sentiment as Santa Cruz. They would love to see the oval make its return. If one searches Homestead on social media platforms like X (previously known as Twitter) and Reddit, rumors and demands for the venue to become the championship decider again, run wilder than a draft dance at Talladega.

After all, some would even call Homestead a true racer’s racetrack. With its challenging variable bankings, and the precision needed to run that perfect line, we prepare for yet another exciting intermediate race that seems to bring out the best in this current generation of vehicles. And a bright example of the ‘Next-Gen driver,’ Ryan Blaney, has already figured out his strategy for Homestead.

Can Ryan Blaney finally cheat the wall and steal a win?

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The #12 driver has won a Cup race only once on a 1.5-mile intermediate race track. That win came at the Coca-Cola 600 in Charlotte last year. Blaney would win no more races in the Regular Season before he won at Talladega and Martinsville in the Playoffs and then became a champion at Phoenix on November 5th. His Team Penske ally, Joey Logano already has a spot in the championship finale dated for November 10th this year. It should put a smile on Roger Penske’s face to see two of his three Cup cars duke it out in the championship race.

But to do that, Blaney has quite the mountain to climb at what he believes is “one of the more risk-reward racetracks that we go to.” In a separate interview quoted by CupScene, he explained his strategy, “The closer you get to the fence, the faster you can go if you can run properly, but it’s one of those things where you inch closer and closer to it and you might hit it.”

Blaney continued, “I feel like the tire fall off there is a huge factor, too. You’re running inches away from the wall with no wiggle room and your tires get worse every lap, so how do you judge that as a driver going into the corner fully committed, but you can’t just do the same thing every lap. You’re always continuing to understand tire wear and things like that…”

“So I feel like that is a huge driver racetrack,” announced the championship hopeful. “I think everyone really enjoys that part of it and I’m excited to get back to that.”

Mathematically, the Team Penske star needs to run an incident-free race, win at least one stage, and run 15th or better to reach the other side of the bubble. But there are more than a few ways to go about this, and just as many variables. Regardless, that brings us back to the point: forecasting a race at Homestead has barely been that easy. Here’s to hoping this asphalt icon can make everyone happy starting in 2026. But until then, nothing remains certain.