The first road course is up on NASCAR’s menu! And so are some new characteristics associated with the COTA racetrack. The earlier layout featured a 3.41-mile, 20-turn full course with tricky esses challenging drivers’ turning skills. Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott won the inaugural Cup Series race on it in 2021. Now, however, the track is turning into a 2.3-mile, 20-turn National Course.

This is an added problem for Chase Elliott. The once ‘King of the Road’ stopped his winning streak after the Next-Gen car debuted. So Elliott will have more on his plate to dissect than just the changed car. As the 2025 COTA race looms on the horizon, he carefully analyzes it.

Chase Elliott outlines the caveats

NASCAR is keeping it special on its fifth trip to the Lone Star State capital. The revamped shape of the course eliminates the section from Turn 7 through the Turn 11 hairpin on the full layout. Besides the physical changes, the sanctioning body has also modified its penalty approach. Last year, Chase Elliott incurred a pass-through penalty as he cut the course by blowing through Turn 3. Track limits are enforced at the esses – and this year, NASCAR installed new 400-lb barriers that did not look so promising. However, officials backtracked and removed them.

Since drivers feared getting pushed wide in the esses and into the barriers unintentionally, this is a welcome change. That is what Chase Elliott observed in an interview, outlining the issues of the penalty. “It was pretty separate from that last year. That’s the tough thing when you have to start policing that. Like in my situation last year, and other guys that are in the same boat…I was going to spin out if I had to correct the car and ended up off the road. Like I wasn’t even trying to cut it…In that situation it’s just tough because I penalized myself…It s—s, you know, I hated that. At least it gets it done, it’s going to be really quick.”

Then Chase Elliott proceeded to comment on the reconfigured track. He observed that the former COTA layout was for F1. “This is an F1-style track, just like Mexico City is an F1-style track. For us, we don’t get to that maximum velocity like those guys do…The straightaway would have to be probably three times the length of what it is – maybe double for us to ee some sort of a slipstream effect.”

So Chase Elliott thinks the changes were necessary for NASCAR drivers. “I think its a great venue, it’s a great track. I think that the changes that they’ve made are good for us, good for our car. Just visually watching the cars run around…I think that its gonna suit just these heavier cars a little better than the long straightaway… the course changed potentially would make me want it more just because it will suit us better. But I’ll probably have a better answer after we go run.”

Although Chase Elliott is weighing his chances with critical analysis, prediction models do not side with him.

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Two rivals outshine his glory

When we kicked off the 2025 season, many new changes were afoot in the NASCAR Cup Series. These ranged from a shuffled race schedule to introducing the Mexico City racetrack. But one important update was on the drivers’ side – Shane van Gisbergen started his full-time career in the Cup Series. The Kiwi speedster has led a trailblazing journey in NASCAR so far – and only on road courses. Starting from his debut win in Chicago to a three-peat winning streak in Xfinity, SVG is right on track to claim the ‘King of the Road’ title. Not far behind him is young prodigy Connor Zilisch. He won at Watkins Glen on his Xfinity Series debut race last year.

Both these new NASCAR faces will be competing at the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix on Sunday. And guess what, both top the charts for the favorites to win at COTA. Shane van Gisbergen leads with +450 odds, while Connor Zilish is behind him at +650 odds. And Chase Elliott? He is way behind at +1000 odds. Apparently, Chase Elliott’s seven road course victories seem like ages ago. They came over an 11-race road course stretch from August 2018 to July 2021. He has been 0 for 19 since, including the two Chicago Street Races.

So Chase Elliott may face an uphill climb this weekend. If he seeks to break his road course winless streak, then a closer dissection would be mandatory on his part.