When we think about the 2022 NASCAR season, the Champion Joey Logano isn’t the first thought in our minds. It’s the sheer dominance of Ross Chastain that stands out. Joining a relatively new team, Chastain went on to secure two wins for Trackhouse Racing, leading them to their first playoff season. He had 15 top-5 finishes and 21 top-10 finishes that season. His impressive driving in the playoffs took him to the final four at Phoenix! That’s the Chastain we all remember.

However, since then, his career has been on a downward trajectory, as he is currently going winless. For the #1 racer, consistency has also been an issue this season. As he struggles to secure a spot in the playoffs, former Hendrick Motorsports crew chief Steve Letarte has taken some potshots at him.

Ross Chastain’s 2024 slump

In the 2024 season, Chastain has managed only 3 top-five finishes and 7 top-ten finishes. His average finish is 14.478. His past performances have been particularly disappointing, with him finishing 33rd in Nashville, 22nd at Chicago, 36th at the Tricky Triangle, and 15th at the Brickyard. However, in the most recent race at Richmond Raceway, Chastain did finish in 5th, giving Trackhouse Racing hope for a comeback. But is it too late now? Critics are not holding back their criticism.

Steve Letarte, in a recent podcast episode of Dirty Mo Dough, said, “I’m telling you though am I just anti- Chastain or are they just don’t impress me as much this year.” He went on to talk about how, other than Richmond, Chastain’s performance has been average. Reiterating this, he said, “But other than Richmond when’s the last mile and a half or bigger track where the one car has been good?” Which is true. If you look at Chastain’s playoff chances, things still look bleak but not impossible.

Similar to Chastain, Bubba Wallace was also struggling. But his comeback timing was much better than Chastain’s. Bubba finished ahead of Chastain in Richmond in 4th place. The #23 also had a 5th-place finish at Indianapolis. Bubba’s recent consistency has made things difficult for the #1. Chastain had a cushion of +17 points going into Richmond but was dropped to 17th in the playoff picture. At +0 points, he and Chris Buescher are currently tied in points. However, since Buescher has better top finishes than Chastain, he’s currently in 16th and above the elimination line.

Nevertheless, Chastain can still make up the distance in points, if not secure a win. Despite Bubba’s recent consistency, he is only +3 points above the cutoff line. A lead that can drastically change with just one race. Due to the dramatic race at Richmond, the lead driver in the bubble, Martin Truex Jr., saw his cushion reduced as he had a DNF. Even Ty Gibbs’ disappointing performance has left him with only an +18 point cushion, making him uncomfortable.

Consistent top-5 finishes in the next three races and leading a few stages could give Chastain enough points to secure a playoff spot solely based on points. However, the #1 driver should aim for a win. That would not only secure a playoff spot but also boost his confidence to fight for the championship. For that, he will need to perform well in the next three races.

Ross Chastain’s chances in the upcoming races

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After the Richmond run, Chastain was satisfied as he said, “The break was a nice break for all of us to take a week or two and not think about these race cars. But they were waiting for us when we came back. And Richmond, right, we hit the ground running and felt good about both the cars. So, that was really rewarding.” Chastain and Trackhouse are aiming to capitalize on that momentum as the NASCAR Cup series moves to the Michigan International Speedway. Reiterating this, he said, “We’re in a growth mindset.”

As for his chances at Michigan, Chastain will look to better his 7th-place finish from the 2023 season. A top-10 finish may not be enough for Chastain as he will be fighting to surpass Chris Buescher in points, who is the 2023 winner of Michigan. It will be a tough race as Buescher is also desperate for a win. If Chastain aims for the win, he will face strong competition from Michigan favorites Kyle Larson and Joey Logano, both of whom have won the race three times each. Chastain will also need to keep an eye on Bubba Wallace, who will be looking to grab crucial points.

The upcoming races also include Daytona and Darlington. Daytona 2023 would not have been a pleasant memory for Chastain, as he finished 17th there. However, anything can happen in NASCAR, so you never know. As for the last race of the regular season at Darlington, Chastain fans will be hopeful, expecting him to better his 5th-place finish from last year. What do you think are his chances in the upcoming races? Let us know in the comments below.