The dust has settled on Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series Phoenix race, and amidst Joe Gibbs Racing’s dominant display, #11 driver Denny Hamlin will be eagerly looking to forget his late-race troubles with a resounding title defense in this year’s Food City 500. The SMI-owned track has been in existence since 1961, witnessing many spectacular events and significant changes. From 2021 until last year, the inaugural Bristol race of the season was run on dirt, replacing its original concrete foundation.

Hamlin’s teammate and Phoenix winner, Christopher Bell, is the defending champ of this unique three-fold event. However, if we take a closer look at the numbers, the prediction is a third Hendrick Motorsports triumph in 2024, courtesy of Vegas victor Kyle Larson and Daytona winner William Byron.

Heavy Hendrick Motorsports Averages at Bristol: A Roadblock for Denny Hamlin

The 0.533-mile oval circuit oversees two races in the NCS season. Out of which the Bass Pro Shops Bristol Night Race is run on concrete, and Phoenix pole-sitter Denny Hamlin last won it in 2023. But it is Kyle Larson who boasts the best average finish at Bristol since NASCAR’s dirt experiment switched back to the old 26–30 degree banking on concrete this season. 

Yes, the Food City 500 trophy will be up for stakes on concrete, and Kyle Larson, with his highest average finish of 2.7 and three top-5 finishes, is a real contender to Hamlin’s Bristol crown. He also has the second-highest laps led in those three races with 229. Finally, to put things into perspective, the #5 holds the record for the fastest lap at Bristol with an impressive 14.945 registered in 2018. Furthermore, in a race that saw Denny Hamlin clinch his third victory in 33 races at the iconic half-mile circuit, Larson finished close behind at P2. 

Larson’s HMS teammate #24, William Byron, seems to be in some kind of loop for 1-2 placings coming into Bristol. After an impressive season-opening Daytona 500 victory, where his other Hendrick teammate Alex Bowman finished 2nd in a historic front-row sweep for Rick Hendrick’s organization, Byron, ironically, holds the second-highest finishing average at Bristol with 5.0, behind Larson. He finished in the top 10 in all three of those races, while finishing within the top 5 in two.

Interestingly, the #24 Chevrolet started behind the #11 Toyota, the last time Denny Hamlin converted his P2 starting spot to a P1 finish in 2023. However, overall scenarios paint a starkly different picture for the #11 and Joe Gibbs Racing.

Joe Gibbs Racing, Defending the Bristol Crown

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The last three times Denny Hamlin raced at Bristol on concrete, he finished with an average of 6.3. He landed within the Top 10 all three of those times and is the third-highest lap leader with 207. Coming off of an impressive qualifying run that saw him win the pole at Phoenix for the #11 Camry XSE and the whole Toyota Racing Development contingent, it is almost prophetic that Hamlin has the best average start number at Bristol with 2.7.

Consequently, his teammate Christopher Bell and the #20 car have paced the field a total of 330 times in the last three night races, making last week’s winner the favorite for back-to-back P1 finishes. His best finish on Bristol concrete was last year’s P3, where he finished behind Hamlin as well as HMS rival Kyle Larson. Nevertheless, he is the 2023 Bristol Dirt Race winner.

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Although a completely different experience, this does signify Bell’s probable “short track” to better fortunes for JGR as they look to maintain the halt to Hendrick Motorsports’ early-season dominance in 2024. Will either of the two favorites retain the Bristol crown for Coach Gibbs’ organization?